Just a matter of weeks ago, the coronavirus was being described as an outbreak in China. That subsequently morphed into a regional epidemic and has now either become, or about to become, a global pandemic with cases being reported from Italy to Japan, U.S. to Kuwait and much else in between.
Primary impact is being felt in China which could see at least one or two fiscal quarters of lackluster growth and that may well push the country’s headline growth below 5% for 2020. Engulfed in a prolonged trade tiff with the U.S. accompanied by a correction in its economy, China posted a headline growth rate of 6.1% in 2019; already the weakest on record for nearly 30 years. So the thought that the current year could be even worse than the year before is a pretty jittery one for oil demand forecasters.
A possible dip, however temporary, in China’s average call of 14 million barrels per day (bpd) on the global oil market, is the primary worry for demand forecasters. Additionally, the country’s intricate presence in global supply chains and its macroeconomic clout provides a secondary woe.
Coronavirus Has Demand Forecasters ‘Shooting Blind’ As Futures Trade 20% Below 2020 Peak (Photo: … [+]
And with towns and cities in countries as near to China as South Korea, and as far away as Italy being in lockdown, a worldwide pandemic tipping the global economy into a negative quarter if not a full-blown recession remains a realistic prospect.
So by how much is oil demand growth going fall? If a word is what you seek – I’d describe it as unprecedented given 2020 was not looking particularly healthy to me in any case. Prior to the outbreak, global demand growth forecasts were in the region of 800,000 bpd to 1.4 million bpd, and I was leaning towards the lower end of the range.
With the coronavirus spread, 2020 may yet be the year of considerably lower demand growth, negligible demand growth or even a possible decline. So market forecasts have begun trickling in triggering much debate on Tuesday (February 25) at the International Petroleum Week (IPWeek) in London; an annual industry fixture that appears much toned down this year, with the notable absence of many Asian crude and petrochemical buyers, and several Big Oil bosses.
Oil giant BP, whose new boss Bernard Looney is around unlike many of his peers, says 2020’s global demand growth could be 300,000-500,000 bpd lower than its internal 2020 projection of 1.2 million bpd. Several others have pitched in too in recent weeks.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), demand growth for the year could be around 1.03 million bpd, a downward revision of 370,000 bpd. If OPEC forecasts are your thing, then the oil exporters’ group reckons the figure is likely to even lower at 990,000 bpd (-230,000 bpd from its last forecast).
And not to be outdone, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reckons it could be around 825,000 bpd, a downward revision of 365,000 bpd. But where is this all going? For instance, much of the IEA’s downward revision is predicated on a Q1 2020 demand contraction of 435,000 bpd (bpd), according to its Executive Director Fatih Birol.
If proven, that would point to the first quarterly decrease since the global financial crisis, and the IEA’s downward revisions might not be done yet. “We are not ruling out a further downward revision. There is no escaping a scenario [coronavirus’ impact] – however temporary – that could result in the lowest oil demand growth in a decade,” Birol adds.
Problem is pinpointing or guesstimating where we might end up come the end of the year. Right now avoiding complacency while not appearing to be too alarmist is the forecasters’ dilemma.
Polling 10 analysts and consultants unscientifically, spread over practically the entire first day at IPWeek points to downward revisions on average of 500,000 bpd, on a median average demand growth forecast of 1.2 million bpd that they had prior to the coronavirus outbreak.
The prediction is closer to the upper range of demand revisions made by the likes of BP rather than OPEC, EIA and IEA, and also chimes with my thinking that many forecasters are being too conservative in their revisions. It could also drive oil prices down to $30 per barrel, should OPEC and its 10 non-OPEC partners fail to cut output further.
Yet, for what it is worth in this evolving scenario, can any of the forecasters really be on the money until first data emerge or the dust appears to settle? I think not. So for want of a better expression, and to cite a decades-old industry contact, we’re all “shooting blind.” Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise!
