One year after the pandemic, college students are transferring between institutions less often than … [+]
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The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center (NSCRC) released a new research report today, indicating that undergraduate transfer enrollment is down 7.9% this spring. That decline is 3.8 times larger than last spring, when the drop was 2.1%.
Transfer declines were greatest in the community college sector, which saw a 15.2% loss. By contrast, transfer enrollments at public four-year colleges remained stable from last spring.
The report, entitled COVID-19 Transfer, Mobility, and Progress: First Look Spring 2021 Report, is the third in a NSCRC series. It gives an initial glimpse into spring 2021 undergraduate transfer patterns through February 25. This report focuses on year-over-year changes for a national sample of institutions representing 74% of the Clearinghouse’s participating institutions and 8.8 million undergraduate students, of whom approximately 532,000 are transfer students. The NSCRC report series is supported by the Ascendium Education Group and ECMC Foundation.
Here are some of the main findings.
Overall Spring Enrollment
Overall Spring 2021 undergraduate enrollment is comprised of students who had also been enrolled last fall (87.9%), returning students who had a prior stop-out (7.1%) and first-time freshmen (5.1%). Transfer enrollment accounted for only 6% of total undergraduate enrollment this spring, a share that’s been relatively stable over the years.
As of February 25, overall undergraduate enrollment was down 5.3% compared to the about the same time last year, before the pandemic was declared. A significant enrollment change observed this spring is the decline (-5.9%) in enrollment for continuing students, compared to decreases of only -1.9% for first-time and -.4% for students returning to school after having stopped out. As the report notes, “these data reveal a ripple effect of large enrollment shortfalls in fall 2020 on the number of students who continue enrollment in spring 2021.”
Higher Education Sector
Transfer declines were most pronounced in the community college and the private, for-profit four-year sectors, which saw decreases of 15.2% and 17.2%, respectively, compared to last spring. Transfers were down only 2.2% at private, nonprofit four- year schools, and among public four-year institutions, the rate was basically the same as last spring.
Different Types of Transfer
Student transfers take place in several different directions, and not all of them showed the same kind of pattern:
- Reverse transfers, in which four-year college students transfer into two-year colleges, showed the largest decrease at 21%;
- Lateral transfers where students transfer from one two-year college to another was down by 9.3%;
- Lateral transfers taking place between four-year institutions decreased by 9.1%;
- Upward transfers, where students transfer from a two year college to a four-year institution were up by 3%, making it the only pathway to see an increase.
A Closer Look At Upward Transfer
Upward transfer increased for women (+5.3%) and Latinx students (+4.4%) as well as for 18- to 20-year-old students (+9.3%). It declined for male (-3.3%), and White (-1.8%) students.
Upward transfer into public four-year colleges (+4.6%) grew more than twice as much as into private nonprofit four-year institutions (+2.2%).
The jump in upward transfers was accounted for by students transferring without having first earned an associate degree (+7.4%). These students now make up two-thirds of upward transfers. In contrast, upward transfer by students who had earned an associate degree declined (-4.3%).
Transfer By Student Characteristics
Race. The decline in overall transfers was greater among White (-13.9%) and Black (-10.9%) students than their Hispanic (-6.3%) and Asian (-6.5%) peers.
Gender. Transfer declines were larger for men (-13.5%) compared to a loss of 5.9% for women. The gender difference was found for all age categories. In fact, transfer increased a bit for women age 30 and older (+1.7%), while it fell sharply (-8.1%) for men of the same age.
Gender differences were particularly apparent for upward transfer. Among continuing transfer students, women transferring upward increased 9.1% this spring. Their male counterparts, however, declined in rate of upward transfer (-4.6%).
Age. Transfer among traditional college-age students (both 18-20 and 21-24) dropped more sharply than among older students (25 and older). In the public four-year sector, transfer enrollment of older students actually increased.
Continuing or returning Students. Transfer declined for continuing students at twice the rate of returning students this spring (-10.2% and -4.9%, respectively, from a year ago). Continuing students transferring to community colleges decreased by 20.8%, which was ten times the pre-pandemic rate of decline.
Implications
Last fall, the Research Center reported “a dampening of student transfer during the pandemic, along with signs of disproportionate impacts on disadvantaged students.” One year later, these same trends are still present.
According to the report, “A ripple effect from last fall’s enrollment decline combined with an increase in the fall to spring attrition rate during COVID-19 has led to an unprecedented 5.9% decline this spring for continuing students. In contrast, there was little change in former students returning this spring after a stop-out.”
Declines in transfer enrollment are being felt most strongly in the community college sector, which has lost enrollments from a triple whammy of effects: more upward transfers, fewer reverse transfers and lower incoming enrollments of new students.
Commenting on the latest results, Doug Shapiro, Executive Director of the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, observed “Transfer enrollment declines this spring are largely attributable to lower enrollment levels last fall and a higher fall-to-spring attrition rate during COVID-19. As the pandemic continues to shift the postsecondary landscape, colleges and universities must address the needs of the students who are most impacted.”
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These preliminary results will be updated as more data are received later in the spring, enabling a tracking of changes in student transfer that are related to the Covid-19 pandemic. The next Transfer Report is scheduled for May 2021. In summer 2021, the NSCRC plans to provide data on transfer and mobility trends based on the full academic year.
