NEW YORK, NEW YORK – MAY 15: A student wears a protective face mask, graduation cap and gown in … [+]
Even if they are limited in the fall, social activities, dining halls, lectures and sporting events have real value for students. Studying at home, online, even if it’s the same quality, is just not the same. Students have already sued for refunds for losing out on these collegiate culture cornerstones and having to study online.
Accordingly, students may be very unwilling to pony up full freight for an online only experience going forward. Or they just may sit out the fall. Either way, colleges may be really squeezed if students bail. So, colleges are going to have to make some very real choices soon, and live with the consequences of what students think about those choices.
Fortunately, people have been asking what students are thinking and planning. We’ve seen plenty of surveys. Naturally, these are just surveys and should taken both at face value and with a grain of salt. Still, if students can exert any pressure on decisions for the fall, it’s worth knowing what they are thinking about it as well as what they may do.
One survey of some 12,000 students by the college review and ranking service Niche, found, “One-third of students (32%) said they’re likely to transfer if their school continues only online learning.” That’s a hefty number, probably inflated by frustration. Even so, transfers anywhere approaching that magnitude would cripple any college. But perhaps it’s not fully bluster, as the same Niche survey found that a healthy 56% of students described an online-only fall “unappealing.”
What ought to really disturb college leaders about considering online classes for the fall is the Niche finding that students overwhelmingly expect to pay less for online or even hybrid classes – a mix of online and in person. Niche says 79% of students, “feel that tuition including room and board should not be the same if they’re taking online or hybrid classes.”
A similar survey of students at four-year colleges by the college advising company brightspot strategy, found a similar mood among students.
The consultancy asked students to rate the value of college – what they received versus what they were paying for – both before Covid-19 and now. It takes some reflective thinking, but it gets to the point that students are less happy than they were just a few months ago. Specifically, just 15% of students thought that, before Covid-19, college was a bad deal. Now 27% do.
Leaders in both groups are clear about what they see in their findings and along the landscape of college challenges for the fall.
“More than anything, we’re hearing that students want some aspect of normalcy. They prefer being on campus, but they also realize how difficult it will be to return to the way things were before,” said Niche CEO and Founder Luke Skurman.
“We think that the key driver for enrollment in the fall is how well colleges and universities foster a sense of community – that’s what students are missing the most,” said Elliot Felix, Founder and CEO of brightspot strategy.
Flag the words, “normalcy” and “community.” For most students, that normal community is what they expected and agreed to pay for. It’s on campus. And they will not be happy not to get some form of it.
Fears that students – or more likely their parents – won’t pay for a knock-off version of college are real. At the same time, if you believe those surveys, those fears are probably unfounded.
That brightspot survey, for example, found that, “even with perceived value in decline, a full 81% of non-graduating students say they plan to return to their institutions for the fall.” That is, they rightly note, exactly the average retention rate among four-year colleges in previous years. In other words, no change. They also found that overall student satisfaction among students is pretty much unchanged since last year – 78% reported being satisfied by their college experience in 2018, 74% said they are now.
In a previous survey released in March by Niche, just 17% of college students were, “considering transferring or taking at least one semester off based upon how their school responded” to Covid-19. With average retention of about 75% overall, if just 17% bailed, enrollment would actually increase this fall. And that 17% is just “considering” it.
Yes, it’s just a few data points in a complex environment. But the theme seems clear that students are deeply, even litigiously unhappy about being forced from campus and into online classes but it’s anything but certain that student discontent will dent fall enrollments – especially if schools make any effort at all to get them back on campus and in person.
