Last week I wrote about how one thing that we can all agree on is more parity in college football, and boy, did last week deliver us the chaos we were asking for. Oregon went into Columbus and knocked off Ohio State as two-touchdown underdogs that have sent a shockwave through college football as one of the “Big 5” has gone down. Heading into Saturday, Ohio State, according to my model, had a 63.6% chance of making the playoffs while Oregon had only a 4.6% chance. After the upset, Ohio State has fallen to 27.6%, and Oregon has climbed to 10.3%. Those odds may seem low, but my model still isn’t buying into Oregon being a Top 10 team, and with road trips to UCLA, Washington, and Utah, as well as the Pac-12 Championship game, it’s easy to see where Oregon could drop a game or two.
Despite the Buckeyes having an early season blemish, my model actually sees the Big 5 winning the national title more than last week’s simulation, but that doesn’t mean the opportunity for chaos isn’t possible, and the door is certainly still open. This past week, Georgia was a huge beneficiary as they smoked a solid UAB team and saw its title odds increase from 13.9% to 25.5%. It’s early in the season, but it really seems like it’s a two-horse race between Alabama and Georgia.
Ole Miss, Iowa, and Oregon make jumps into the Top 10 in title odds while Notre Dame, Texas A&M, and Miami drop out. The three teams dropping out come at no surprise; Notre Dame was a late touchdown away from dropping a game at home against Toledo while their week 1 win takes a big hit with Florida State losing at home to Jacksonville State, Texas A&M went down to the wire with Colorado as 17 point favorites, and Miami needed a late field goal to overcome Appalachian State.
