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College enrollment declined in Fall 2020, according to estimates by the National Student Clearinghouse (NSC), but the decline was far less severe than many observers previously predicted. Indeed, enrollment in some corners of the higher education world—including predominantly online schools and graduate programs—actually increased.
Around 17.5 million students were enrolled in an institution of higher education in Fall 2020, a 2.6% decline relative to the year before. The American Council on Education, a lobby group, had initially predicted a catastrophic enrollment drop of 15%, which did not materialize.
The biggest red flag is first-year college enrollment, which NSC figures declined 13% in the fall. International student enrollment also dropped thanks to travel restrictions, which is concerning as foreign students are a major source of revenue for universities. However, it is possible that freshmen and international students will return once the pandemic has subsided, providing a major boost to enrollment in Fall 2021.
The enrollment drop in 2020 is almost entirely due to programs below the baccalaureate level, according to the NSC data. Enrollment in bachelor’s degree programs fell 0.9% in Fall 2020. That is almost identical to the drop in bachelor’s degree program enrollment in Fall 2019, suggesting a continuation of an existing trend rather than a departure.
However, enrollment in associate’s degree programs fell 8.4%. Public community colleges, which offer most of these programs, therefore bore the brunt of the pandemic’s effect on higher education. Traditional four-year colleges, both public and private, barely suffered at all. Moreover, enrollment in graduate degree programs actually grew in Fall 2020, likely providing a financial boost to the universities which offer them.
Preston Cooper/Forbes
Part of the reason for this divergence is the fact that many two-year degrees involve more coursework that requires face-to-face instruction. Two-year programs in personal and culinary services saw enrollment drop 17%, and mechanic and repair technologies programs saw enrollment shrink 16%. Meanwhile, popular bachelor’s degree programs such as psychology and computer science saw enrollment grow by 7% and 6%, respectively.
NSC does not release data on enrollment trends at individual schools. However, an analysis of enrollments at the state level reveals some interesting insights. Most states saw their college populations shrink in 2020. The only three states with significant increases in enrollment were New Hampshire (up 16%), Utah (up 5%) and Virginia (up 3%). Not coincidentally, these three states are also home to three of the largest predominantly online universities in the country: Southern New Hampshire University (New Hampshire), Western Governors University (Utah), and Liberty University (Virginia).
Preston Cooper/Forbes
While students turned up their noses at traditionally brick-and-mortar universities that suddenly had to design virtual education programs from scratch, the data suggest that schools which were online before the pandemic are thriving.
This is consistent with studies showing that online education can be done well if done right. Online schools which have invested years in developing virtual classes have a distinct advantage over brick-and-mortar schools which are only now getting into the Zoom game.
The question now is whether enrollment will continue to stay lower or bounce back in Fall 2021. Despite the enrollment drop in Fall 2020, there’s reason to think the sector will quickly recover.
Historically, people go back to school when the labor market is weak, since adding another degree to your resume makes you stand out among a large pool of job applicants. It remains to be seen how many of the “missing students” from Fall 2020’s freshman class will decide to enroll in 2021, but these students could also swell the ranks of college students in the coming fall. The higher education sector took a small hit in 2020, but there’s little reason to think its misfortune will be permanent.
