Chinese Meddling In U.S. Election? If You Count Trade-War Efforts, Then Yes

The Chinese are proving pretty adept at targeting so-called “red states” with their retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports, in response to more aggressive tariffs from President Trump on Chinese imports.

But not perfectly so.

On the heels of a tweet from leading West Coast seaports to President Trump on Monday, decrying the impact of the U.S.-China trade war not only on their ports and port communities but the nation as a whole, I decided to delve into the state data.

Perhaps most interesting was that while exports that travel by water and air are roughly equal in value through July of this year, they have not been in previous years. That’s because those exports that are sailing are down almost 30% this year while those flying are actually up. Up more than 5%, in fact.

What does that mean?

That means, generally speaking, that high-value commodities, which tend to fly – think pharmaceuticals, for example – are still flying.

And it means lower-value, heavier and bulkier commodities, which tend to be loaded onto ships – think oil and agricultural products like soybeans – are caught in the cross-hairs of the trade war.

I have written quite a bit about oil and soybeans, as well as other aspects of the trade war.

But the Chinese signaled early on that they wanted to hit President Trump where it would hurt most: his reelection efforts.

They wanted to hit “red states,” or Republican states, states that would matter next year.

No state has been hit quite like Texas, which for decades has been reliably redder than red.

With nearly two times the value of ocean-bound exports as any other state last year, Texas exports to China are down 57.21% this year. It now ranks second to California, where ocean-borne exports are off 13.84%, draconian in most conversations but not this one.

A great deal of the absolutely draconian Texas decline is, of course, oil. China had been a leading market for booming Texas oil exports.

Here are 10 states exporting to China via water-borne trade with the largest percent decreases, in order of rank:

State / Decrease

Texas / 57.21

Alabama / 52.01%

Ohio / 31.77%

Tennessee / 31.89%

Oregon / 42.54%

Kentucky / 66.63%

Mississippi / 39.71%

Kansas / 31.41%

Arkansas / 46.67

Nevada / 88.40

If I’m Oregon, I’m thinking: “How did we get on this list? We didn’t vote for Trump.” All of the other states did, however.

So, what’s the story on airborne trade?

Well, some states are getting hit pretty hard there, even with the overall increase.

Again, in order by overall value of that trade, here are the steeper percentage losses, though these states, unlike with the ocean-borne trade aren’t necessarily the largest by value:

Florida / 53.56%

Idaho / 45.31%

Alabama / 61.23%

Maine / 47.21%

West Virginia / 36.70%

Arkansas / 29.48%

Wyoming / 31.10%

If I’m Maine, I’m thinking: “How did I get on this list? We gave three of our four electoral college votes to Hillary.” All of the other states did vote for Trump, of course.