“We meet here to show our support for the Chinese people and to reaffirm our commitment to the ideals of democracy and freedom of expression. We meet here reflecting on the very future of China.”
That was prime pinister Bob Hawke in 1989, in one of his most memorable and emotional speeches, reflecting on the atrocity of the Tiananmen Square massacre.
Without consulting his Cabinet, Hawke instinctively offered asylum to Chinese students and eventually their families. It led to 42,000 Chinese nationals ultimately resettling in Australia.
Scott Morrison faces a moment with striking parallels and 31 years on, he has an opportunity to be just as bold.
Pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong aren’t being mowed down with tanks, but they are being rounded up in their hundreds under a draconian new “national security” law imposed by Beijing.
Under the law, the people of Hong Kong can be jailed for life for engaging in vaguely defined acts of “secession, subversion, terrorism or collusion with foreign forces”. This can include anything that broadly provokes “hatred” of the Chinese Government. One of the first to be arrested was a man merely holding an independence flag.
Worryingly, the law can also apply to citizens and non-citizens who aren’t even in Hong Kong. So, attending a pro-democracy rally in Sydney or Melbourne or openly criticising the Chinese Communist Party could potentially put someone in danger of arrest should they one day visit Hong Kong.
Visiting Hong Kong is now officially a risk
Chinese security forces can now operate with impunity in Hong Kong and cases can be swiftly handed over to mainland authorities. Those arrested can find themselves dragged into China’s opaque legal system. Experts warn there’s now a risk in visiting Hong Kong for anyone who’s ever criticised the Chinese Communist Party.
Most in the region have been muted in their response, but the US, UK, Canada and Australia have spoken out. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo says his nation “will not stand idly by while China swallows Hong Kong into its authoritarian maw”.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson says the law “violates Hong Kong’s high degree of autonomy” and is a “clear and serious breach” of the 1984 handover agreement.
Actions, however, will speak louder than words.
Johnson has pledged to offer safe haven in Britain for those fleeing Hong Kong. Morrison has given a strong indication Australia will do the same. Cabinet will soon consider options he says are “very consistent with who we are as a people and very consistent practically with the views that we have expressed”.
The lines are being drawn, but what’s at stake?
His emphasis on “consistency” is part of a concerted effort to draw clear lines for China to understand where Australia stands.
When Hawke spoke 31 years ago, China was beginning its economic rise and represented a fraction of the trading power it has since become. Now there is far more at stake for an Australian economy heavily reliant on selling commodities, consumables and higher education to China.
That’s what makes this an arguably riskier decision for Morrison than Hawke faced in 1989. Hence the need to tread carefully.
While trade complementarities mean Australia is still likely to sell coal and iron ore to China for many years, there’s every chance Beijing will punish Australia further on consumables. Wine and beef could be hit with tariffs similar to those already imposed on barley.
China has warned against meddling in its sovereignty
From China’s perspective, any move to help pro-democracy activists flee Hong Kong equates to “meddling” in its internal affairs. This is about sovereignty and territorial integrity. Beijing will be far more upset about this than Australia’s Strategic Update plans to buy more high-tech defence kit.
Whatever the immediate backlash may be, the view in Canberra is that clear lines must be drawn for the longer-term good.
Hong Kong is home to about 100,000 Australian expats and an outpost of democratic freedom. Taking a firm stand against this crackdown and even offering safe-haven visas may help influence how this new national security law is implemented in practice.
The great fear is that remaining silent will only encourage China to go further over the coming decade, particularly when it comes to President Xi Jinping’s long-term ambition to bring Taiwan back into the fold.
Exactly what form of Australian visa and how many are offered to those in Hong Kong is still being determined.
The detail will matter. Offering safe-haven to anyone now subject to China’s legal system, could mean opening the door to those on the mainland as well. It’s more likely this will be targeted at the skilled workers and students of Hong Kong through another pathway.
Dissent will not be tolerated
China has shown it will not tolerate the sort of protests that dominated Hong Kong last year. It will not tolerate any dissent.
Australia has decided there’s no going back to the relationship that existed even seven years ago. An “authoritarian renovation” has taken place under President Xi and Canberra has determined the best response is to be patient, steady, clear and ready to talk.
Working with like-minded partners will also be critical. There’s some hope that in time, China will calculate that it, too, needs to engage.
Just don’t expect that to happen any time soon.
David Speers is the host of Insiders, which airs on ABC TV at 9am on Sunday or on iview.
