The PGA Tour is back! The Charles Schwab Challenge (June 11-14) will be the first tournament held since the cancelation of The Players Championship in March due to the COVID-19 pandemic. An expanded and star-studded field will be in attendance at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas. Below, we look at BetMGM‘s PGA Tour betting odds to win and make our Charles Schwab Challenge picks and best bets.
The first event to be held without fans permitted on the course will see four of the top five golfers in the Golfweek/Sagarin world ranking, including No. 1 Webb Simpson, try to hold off the competition in a more level field.
The key stats for the 7,209-yard, par-70 Colonial Country Club:
Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
Strokes Gained: Short Game
Birdies or Better Gained
Strokes Gained: Scrambling
Par 4 Efficiency: 400-450 Yards
Proximity from 125-150 Yards
My model at Fantasy National looks at the most recent 50 rounds for each golfer in the field on courses with Bentgrass greens. We’ll also weigh long-term putting performance more heavily this week than usual as a result of the extended midseason interruption.
Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Picks – Tier 1
Odds provided by BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday, June 3 at 1 p.m. ET.
Jon Rahm (+1100)
Rahm, ranked fourth in the Golfweek world rankings, was in proper form as one of the best golfers in the world prior to the break. He has finishes of second, T-3, T-9 and 10th in five events in 2020.
He ranks 12th overall by my stat model over his last 50 rounds on Bentgrass greens. He’s seventh in the field in Ball Striking and fourth in Birdies or Better Gained. He missed the cut at Colonial last year, but he was T-5 in 2018 and T-2 in 2017. He offers adequate value when compared to Rory McIlroy (+700) as the tournament favorite.
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Justin Rose (+5000)
Rose won this event in 2018 when it was known as the Fort Worth Invitational. His finish at 20-under par is the second-best winning score ever at Colonial.
The 22-time winner around the globe ranks second in the stat model. He was in poor form early this year, having missed the cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, The Honda Classic and the Farmers Insurance Open. He’s well worth backing at an inflated price following the Tour’s hiatus.
Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Picks – Tier 2
Jason Day (+6600)
As noted above, these first few weeks of tournament play will be a good time to trust putters. No one has been better than Day over their last 100 rounds on Bentgrass greens. He hasn’t won since doing so twice in 2018, but the extended break has helped him to rest his lingering injuries.
Kevin Kisner (+9000)
Kisner ranks third in the field in SG: Putting on Bentgrass greens. The 2017 champion of Colonial followed it up with a T-52 in 2018 and a missed cut last year, but he was T-10 in 2016 and T-5 in 2015. He has gained an average of 1.53 strokes per round in Fort Worth over 20 career rounds, according to Data Golf.
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Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Picks – Long shots
Danny Lee (+12500)
Lee has just one PGA Tour win, but he’s a strong long-shot bet without fan pressure. He has been a steady performer at Colonial CC, making the cut in each of his last five visits with a sixth-place finish in 2017 and a T-10 in 2015. He has gained an average of 1.31 strokes per round across 28 rounds at this venue.
Emiliano Grillo (+15000)
Grillo made the cut in each of his last four trips to Fort Worth, finishing third in 2018 and T-19 last year. His 1.57 strokes gained per round at Colonial rank sixth in the field among those with a minimum of 10 rounds played. The break and the fan-less competition could serve him well as he looks for his first PGA Tour win since the 2015 Frys.com Open.
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