CarGurus Study Shows EV Consideration Soars, Tesla Dominance Challenged

Consumer interest in purchasing an electric vehicle has doubled in the past three years but Tesla’s

TSLA
dominance in the segment is at risk, according to a study released today by car buying and research site CarGurus.com. That positive sentiment towards EVs is tempered, however, by a large percentage of respondents who said certain conditions must change before they would consider the switch.

In the February survey of 1,097 automobile owners in the U.S. 30% said they would “probably” or “definitely” own an electric vehicle in the next five years. That compares with 15% in a similar CarGurus survey taken in 2018. Looking further out, 52% said they would probably or definitely own an EV in the next ten years compared with 34% in the 2018 survey.

Overall, 56% said they were “excited” about the development of electric vehicles.

Intentions are one thing, sales are quite another. Not so fast.

“The latest CarGurus Electric Vehicle Sentiment Survey shows that there is a rapid mainstreaming around the consideration for electric vehicles, and based on our data this demand should translate to vehicle sales as the infrastructure becomes more widely available,” said Madison Gross, Director of Customer Insights at CarGurus.

There’s the rub. According to the CarGurus survey, that increased consideration of electric vehicles is largely conditional.

When asked how effective certain items would be to convince them to buy an EV, 65% selected “if there were more charging stations in my area,” followed closely by 62% citing “if it were easy to find replacement parts, including batteries.”

Other conditions included “if long-term fuel and maintenance savings outweigh the higher initial asking price” and tax incentives/rebates (56% each), extended warranties (53%), “good expected resale value,” (51%), cleaner battery production (48%) and “if electric vehicles become more mainstream,” (46%)

Even if they decided to take the plunge, which automaker would get their business? Tesla tops the list at 57% who said they’d be likely to consider the brand, but Toyota and Honda are close behind at 52% and 45% respectively.

That’s now. Nearly 80% (78%) of those who said they plan to own an EV in the next decade also said they’re open to “several brands” of electric vehicles.

“Even though Tesla currently holds a leadership position for reputation and purchase consideration, there is a great opportunity with electric vehicles since the majority of shoppers have not honed in on them as the only brand they would turn to for an electric vehicle,” said Gross.

Much of that brand consideration will depend on what body styles are available. When asked what body style of fully or hybrid electric vehicle they would be likely to consider 67% chose SUV/crossover, followed by 61% favoring sedans, 27% for hatchbacks, 20% favored pickup trucks and 21% selecting other body styles including minivans.

Looking at a few highly promoted electric vehicles recently introduced, among those who said they plan to own an EV in the next decade 40% said they are “interested” in the Chevrolet Bolt or Bolt EUV compared with 34% for the Ford Mustang Mach-E.

In the competitive pickup truck segment, the Tesla Cybertruck has the slight edge with 40% expressing interest compared with 32% for the Ford F-150 EV and 17% for the GMC Hummer EV.

Findings in the CarGurus survey are a bit more optimistic than those reported in February in the J.D. Power U.S. Electric Vehicle Consideration Study where an equal number of those surveyed (59%) said they “somewhat likely” or “somewhat unlikely” to consider an electric vehicle for their next purchase.

In that study, familiarity with battery electric vehicles appeared to help sway consideration. Among respondents who said they have owned or leased a BEV in the past, 46% said they would be “very likely” to consider another, while only 6% said they would be “very unlikely” to consider purchasing another BEV as their next vehicle.

What both surveys reveal is as some automakers ramp up production of battery electric vehicles in a wider variety of body styles, they’ve clearly captured consumers’ attention. But a number of conditions must change before they can turn considerations into sales…and Tesla needs to watch its back. To paraphrase the great pitcher Satchel Paige, somebody’s gainin’ on them.