The Denver Nuggets dispatched the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs last season, marking the second consecutive season Nikola Jokic and Co. eliminated them.
In the offseason, Los Angeles replaced head coach Darvin Ham with JJ Redick but refused to mortgage the future with a hasty blockbuster trade.
The Lakers’ roster remains essentially unchanged as training camp looms on Oct. 1. Can this team compete for a championship?
Offense
The Lakers’ five-man lineup of Spencer Dinwiddie, Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura, LeBron James and Anthony Davis boasted the league’s fourth-highest offensive rating at 142.9 points per 100 possessions. This unit offers a clear blueprint for Los Angeles.
With James running the show as the de facto point guard, he forced opponents into impossible choices. Defend him one-on-one; he’ll bully to the basket or relentlessly hunt for mismatches. Send help, and he’ll find AD at the rim for an easy bucket (77.4% from 0-3 feet), hit Hachimura in the corner (44.3%), or pass to Reaves in space (81.0% from 0-3 feet).
The departure of Dinwiddie, the fifth Lakers’ top unit member, to the Mavericks in the offseason might be a blessing in disguise. His subpar 33.7% three-point shooting last season allowed defenders to sag off him, hindering the Lakers’ spacing.
Enter Gabe Vincent, a reliable 3-and-D point guard who can provide the floor spacing necessary for James, Davis and Reaves to operate.
With Vincent joining the starters, D’Angelo Russell can move to a bench role where he can thrive as a potential Sixth Man of the Year candidate. He’ll lead a second unit featuring sharpshooter Max Christie, defensive specialist Jarred Vanderbilt and the solid frontcourt duo of Jaxson Hayes and Christian Wood (upon his return from injury).
Defense
After acquiring Vanderbilt, Malik Beasley, Russell and Hachimura via trade during the 2022-23 regular season, the Lakers finished the season with the fourth-best post-All-Star Defensive Rating at 113.1. Their late surge didn’t translate to the following season, as they slipped to the 17th-ranked defense despite Davis, a perennial Defensive Player of the Year contender, remaining healthy for most of the season.
Injuries crippled the Lakers’ perimeter defense, with their top three options missing significant time.
Vanderbilt, a versatile defender capable of guarding positions one through four, was limited to only 29 games. The Lakers missed his ability to stifle All-Star guards and disrupt offenses with his length on the perimeter (2.1% steal rate in 2022-23, good for the top 25 in the NBA).
Vincent, a sturdy point-of-attack defender known for his ability to handle wings on the block and point guards beyond the arc, also struggled to stay on the court, appearing in only 11 games. Cam Reddish, who, after bouncing around the league, committed himself to playing hardnosed defense, was similarly hampered by injuries, playing in just 48 games.
With Davis anchoring the paint and the anticipated return of their top three perimeter ballhawks from injury, the Lakers should reclaim their status as a top-tier defensive unit this season.
The verdict
The Western Conference is stacked. The right pairings will be critical for every team in the postseason. Even the reigning champion Denver Nuggets, led by league MVP Jokic, fell victim to the matchup nightmare presented by the Timberwolves in last season’s playoffs.
The Nuggets and Timberwolves have the frontcourt size to disrupt James and AD. Regardless of seeding or regular-season success, this current Lakers roster will likely lose to either team in the playoffs.
However, Los Angeles matches up well against the Thunder, Pelicans and Suns, which lack the interior bulk to handle AD and James.
If the Lakers face any of these teams in the early rounds, their potent offense, combined with a revitalized defense, could easily help them make a deep playoff run, potentially reaching the Finals.
