After dozens of phone calls and texts with coaches and scouts throughout the 2024 NFL Draft process, here are my dozen takeaways on this year’s picks:
1. I am so intrigued to see how things play out in Chicago. We know the Bears have had an abysmal track record of drafting quarterbacks, from Cade McNown to Rex Grossman to Mitch Trubisky to Justin Fields. None of those four had the hype of Caleb Williams, but none had the same tools in terms of arm talent, escapability and playmaking.
I’d be super excited if I was a Bears fan — not just for Williams, but how they’ve surrounded him with a ton of talent. The Bears used the No. 9 pick on Washington receiver Rome Odunze, who joins Marvin Harrison Jr. as the closest to sure things in this draft. Odunze is strong and physical, has elite ability to track the ball and is great at making contested catches. He’s ultra-competitive and should fit in well with DJ Moore and supreme route-runner Keenan Allen. They’d already added a dynamic running back in D’Andre Swift to go with tight end Cole Kmet.
On the flip side, as Kevin Fishbain and I wrote last week, the Bears may not have the ideal ecosystem to support Williams inside the building.
“Caleb is going to a locker room where you’re wondering who is the vet that is gonna tell him that he is screwing up,” one NFL quarterbacks coach said. “Who is the vet that will give him confidence for doing something right? It is about the room. It’s about your peers — what they’re saying, what they’re seeing, what they’ve seen, stories they can tell. ‘Man, this happened to me five years ago in the playoffs. Man, Vic Fangio and this family of defenses do this. This family of defenses does that.’
“When you come into the NFL as a rookie quarterback, you need people around you that have this wealth of knowledge. … Somebody who has been in there and done it, and can say, ‘Hey, Caleb. Hey, man, come over here.’ That’s what you’re hoping to see that they’re not making the same mistake again that they made with Justin. It’s critical, man, that a young quarterback has the right type of example, the right peers, the right room to have success early. Brett Rypien may be an awesome guy, but will Caleb Williams respect him? I don’t know. He might, but who will be that guy for him that can say, ‘Hey, Caleb, you’re screwing up, man. Hey, Caleb, I get here at 6 in the morning. Where were you?’”
Those things matter behind the scenes, and you don’t know about them until something goes wrong — or ends up going great. From a surrounding talent standpoint, Williams appears to be in great shape to launch his career, and so far, he’s said all the right thing. But nurturing a young quarterback, especially one who is going to get the franchise savior label, is a day-in and day-out grind. In fairness to Williams, he’s the first of a new era of college star QBs in the NIL/portal era and the only “star” who played in a major media market. That in itself presents some unique opportunities and challenges. It didn’t help that it happened at a program mired in a massive rebuild. There wasn’t an established culture of success at USC for Williams.
Based on what I’ve seen and heard from folks I trust, I wouldn’t bet against Williams. He does have to get much better at getting rid of the ball, standing in the pocket and diagnosing post-snap movement, but those are things Chicago can help him with. Pairing him with Odunze only makes me that much more confident both will flourish in Chicago.
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2. I love what the Commanders did in their draft, starting with taking LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels at No. 2. He blossomed into a terrific passer last year, and that meshed well with his fantastic feet. It’s not fair to compare any young QB to Lamar Jackson, but Daniels’ ability to run away from fast defenders gives Washington a great dimension. He also has some good weapons with Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Zach Ertz. Second-round TE Ben Sinnott from Kansas State is a horse who I think was underrated, and new offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury has a lot to play with.
Better still is what Washington did on defense. Illinois DT Johnny Newton was a huge steal at No. 36. He’s twitchy and powerful and has heavy hands. He was often unblockable, piling up 18 sacks and 27.5 TFLs in his career — impressive totals for a defensive tackle. He also blocked four kicks in 2023. Then, the Commanders took my favorite player in the draft in Michigan nickelback Mike Sainristil at No. 50. The former slot receiver is undersized, but he’s so quick and instinctive and he just makes tons of plays. A terrific blitzer and a terrific tackler, he is a ballhawk who was also a great leader, playing a pivotal role in transforming the Wolverines into a national champion.
Jayden Daniels won the Heisman with 4,946 yards of total offense. (Kirby Lee / USA Today)
3. The most puzzling move of the draft was the Falcons taking Michael Penix Jr. at No. 8. I wasn’t surprised that a team thought the Washington quarterback was worth a top-10 pick. Coaches I’ve spoken to were always way more effusive about him and his film than many on social media. Coaches really like his arm talent, how he reads coverages, how sharp he is and the resiliency he’s displayed in his college career. But I was convinced the Falcons needed to go defense at the top of their draft. Instead, a franchise that just invested a fortune in Kirk Cousins took Penix.
I am a big believer in Penix, but this fit seems curious to me. He’s about as ready to go now as any quarterback in this class. He’ll be 24 soon. Sitting and potentially waiting for two or more seasons doesn’t make a lot of sense.
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4. The Eagles cleaned up. Again. Last year, Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith and Sydney Brown all seemed to fall to them. This year, the most talented corner in the draft, Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell, was still on the board at No. 22. He’s a very physical player with great change-of-direction skills and instincts. Then, Iowa’s Cooper DeJean, a dominant player for a terrific Hawkeyes defense, was still around in the second round at No. 40, where the Eagles traded up to get him. In the past two seasons, the 6-foot, 205-pounder had seven interceptions with three pick sixes, 13 pass breakups and 116 tackles.
“This is the best DB in the class,” an NFL defensive backs coach told me a few weeks ago. “He has the rare ability to be a nickel one year, a safety the next and a corner the next. He’ll be a great chess piece. He doesn’t have the linear straight line transitions of what you want in a first-round corner. But you see some Minkah Fitzpatrick and Jevon Holland in there. He can play outside, in the slot, in the deep part of the field. I think whoever gets him will be really happy with him.”
DeJean also is a superb punt returner and special-teamer.
Philly also bagged Houston Christian pass rusher Jalyx Hunt, a rare athlete who can learn behind some proven edge rushers. This is a 6-4, 252-pound player with 34 1/2 inch arms who can broad jump 10-8. Getting a talent like that late in the third round is a good roll of the dice. Drafting Clemson running back Will Shipley at No. 127 to spell Saquon Barkley is another pick I like. Shipley’s smooth and has a lot of juice. He can prove to be a nice asset for Jalen Hurts as a third-down back.
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Eagles remained patient and landed arguably draft’s top CB in Quinyon Mitchell
5. The Steelers got two of the toughest players in the draft in West Virginia center Zach Frazier and NC State linebacker Payton Wilson. Not coincidentally, both are former standout high school wrestlers. That was after getting an outstanding offensive lineman in Washington’s Troy Fautanu at No. 20. College defensive line coaches thought Frazier was a beast, and he seems like a steal in the middle of the second round.
But it’s Wilson going at the end of the third round that really is worth keeping an eye on. He has top-20 talent, and I say that knowing that linebackers don’t typically have that kind of value anymore. Wilson does not have long arms (30 1/2 inches), which is a concern for some coaches, but he flies all over the field. He won the Chuck Bednarik Award as the nation’s best defensive player and the Butkus Award as the top linebacker, piling up 138 tackles with 17.5 TFLs, six sacks and three INTs. His tape was backed up by him running a 4.43-second 40-yard dash.
The reason why he lasted to No. 98 — probably 75 picks longer than his ability merits — is because he has one of the most concerning medical histories of any star player in the draft with knee and shoulder issues. NC State folks noted that Wilson has been injury-free the past two years. The hope is that his shoulders and knees hold up long enough to at least get him through his first contract. If that can happen, Wilson will be one of the best picks of the third round.
Payton Wilson led the ACC with 138 tackles in 2023. (Rob Kinnan / USA Today)
6. Jim Harbaugh’s first draft with the Chargers looks really good. The coach who had the best O-line in college football the past few years got the best offensive linemen in the draft in Notre Dame’s towering Joe Alt. The 6-foot-9, 321-pound Alt, who won’t turn 22 until after his rookie year, is a former tight end. That kind of athleticism shows up. At the NFL combine, he ran a 7.31-second three-cone drill that was the best among all offensive tackle prospects in Indianapolis.
“He’s as good as I’ve coached against in a long time,” a college defensive coach told me. “He’s athletic. He’s big. He’s strong. He moves his feet real well. He’s never in a bad position and he’s never on the ground. Some of these guys, you can get them moving. This dude always had his pads square and played with low pad level.”
The Chargers then addressed a need at receiver by trading up for Georgia’s Ladd McConkey at No. 34. He’s probably the best route runner in the draft. He’s primarily a slot receiver but is very sudden and fast. He also probably would’ve put up bigger numbers in college had Georgia not had the great Brock Bowers. The Chargers lost linebackers Eric Kendricks and Kenneth Murray this offseason, so it made sense for Harbaugh to draft Michigan’s Junior Colson, a smart, tough, three-down mike linebacker who can handle running the defense. Notre Dame cornerback Cam Hart is a toolsy player at 6-3, 202 pounds with 33-inch arms and an 11-foot broad jump guy. He represents good value in the fifth round.
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Chargers stick to their blueprint by drafting OL Joe Alt
7. Harbaugh told me last summer that he thought Michigan would break Georgia’s record of 15 players picked in a single NFL Draft in 2022. His prediction didn’t quite come true — the Wolverines finished with 13 players drafted — but given that his team went 15-0 and won the national championship, I suspect he’s just fine with how things worked out in Ann Arbor. Still, I was a little surprised offensive linemen Karsen Barnhart and Trente Jones didn’t selected, nor did edge Braiden McGregor.
8. The Lions needed a lot of help at corner, and even though they were drafting late in each round, I think they did really well. Alabama’s Terrion Arnold (No. 24) is an outstanding talent who should fit in well in Detroit. Missouri’s Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (No. 61) was another good add. He’s a bit undersized, but he’s instinctive and feisty and reminds me a little of Seattle’s Devon Witherspoon.
Utah running back/safety Sione Vaki was on my Freaks List last year, and if you watched him fill in at running back when the Utes depth chart needed help, you could see why. Vaki is really explosive with excellent burst. Taking him at No. 132 could pay off in a talented running back room. Vaki figures to be a heat-seeking missile on special teams.
9. The Chiefs seem to have a lot of things dialed in. They moved up to No. 28 to snag the draft’s fastest player in years in Texas WR Xavier Worthy, who blazed a 4.21 40-yard dash. That’s just one of the reasons why Patrick Mahomes is very happy this weekend. Worthy is much more than just a pure speed guy. NFL coaches told me he reminds them of DeSean Jackson, describing him as “electric.” Even better, he’s a tough player who will try to be physical. Texas coaches told me he was their best practice player since the Steve Sarkisian staff got there three years ago. All of that bodes well.
Kansas City also needed O-line help, and getting BYU’s Kingsley Suamataia, from a program Andy Reid knows well, seems like a good fit too. The 6-5, 326-pounder was No. 3 on the Freaks List in 2023.
“Kingsley is off the charts,” BYU sports scientist Skyler Mayne told me last year. “He’s faster than our linebackers. “He’s so fluid and smooth. He’s super explosive and can throw a ton of weight around. You watch him on the field throw a big defensive end around with one arm, and he doesn’t even break stride. If he wanted to be a tight end or fullback, because he’s so naturally gifted and has the agility, he could.”
He still needs a lot more polish, but he’s now in a good situation to blossom.
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How BYU bond with Andy Reid helped Kingsley Suamataia land with the Chiefs
10. The Jaguars needed a lot of defensive line help, but it was surprising that they took LSU’s Maason Smith as high as they did with the No. 48 pick. The 6-5, 305-pound Smith is a former five-star recruit, but he was sidelined by injury for a big chunk of his three seasons in Baton Rouge. Making matters tougher, he had six defensive line coaches in his three years and four in the past year. Smith has intriguing potential, evoking some visions of Leonard Williams.
It’s worth noting new Jaguars defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen is a protege of former LSU head coach Ed Orgeron, who recruited Smith to Baton Rouge. Former Tigers defensive coordinator Matt House is also now on the Jacksonville staff too. One of the concerns about Smith is he plays high and needs to play with better pad level and become more physical.
“He is a boom-or-bust,” an NFL D-line coach told me earlier this month. “In his defense, there is still a lot of football in him. He’s played 976 snaps in three years. 17 starts. He’s got everything you want.”
The Commanders may have gotten a steal in Michigan’s Mike Sainristil. (Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today)
11. My favorite value picks by round:
- Bears: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington (No. 9)
- Commanders: Mike Sainristil, DB, Michigan (No. 50)
- Steelers: Payton Wilson, LB, NC State (No. 98) … or Giants: Andru Phillips, CB, Kentucky (No. 70)
- Texans: Cade Stover, TE, Ohio State (No. 123)
- Bills: Javon Solomon, DE, Troy (No. 168)
- Cowboys: Ryan Flournoy, WR, Southeast Missouri State (No. 216)
- Raiders: MJ Devonshire, CB, Pitt (No. 229)
I was tempted to put the Rams’ pick of Washington State DE Brennan Jackson as my fifth-round value pick. Jackson went No. 154 but probably could’ve gone 50 picks earlier. He was also the subject of my favorite coach quote of the draft process: “People aren’t talking about about this guy enough,” said an NFL defensive assistant. “I think he’s a knock-your-face-off run defender and like a disruptive caveman as a pass rusher.”
Choosing Devonshire for my seventh-round value pick was a tougher call than any other round on Day 3. I think Devonshire will emerge as a starting corner, but I also like the Broncos’ pick of big, fast (but old) Utah wideout Devaughn Vele at No. 235; the Bengals’ pick of Miami center Matt Lee at No. 237; and the Panthers’ pick of Michigan LB Michael Barrett at No. 240.
12. It remains to be seen how good of a QB draft the 2024 class was. Next year’s batch will also be interesting to track. The hunch here is that Georgia’s Carson Beck and Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders are on track to become first-rounders. I’m very interested to see how Alabama’s Jalen Milroe develops under Kalen DeBoer. Milroe is big and strong with terrific speed and has wowed his new coaches with his work ethic and commitment. Among the others on the radar are Texas’ Quinn Ewers, Miami’s Cam Ward, Ole Miss’ Jaxon Dart and LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier.
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(Top photos of Xavier Worthy, Caleb Williams and Cooper DeJean: Tim Warner, Michael Reaves, Carly Mackler /Getty Images)
