Now that we’ve entered the “Roaring 2020s,” it’s an opportune time to hark back to the O.G. “roaring” decade. The 1920s left indelible marks on culture and industry alike, some of which remain relevant today. For instance, the notion of independent mobility came into focus as mass adoption of the automobile in the United States solidified during the 1920s. Thanks primarily to Henry Ford’s Model T, which began production in 1908, automobiles soon became affordable for the general populace.
Mass adoption of the automobile facilitated other societal impacts, including the very early roots of suburbanization. Couple land-use restrictions like single-family residence zoning and minimum parking requirements together with (historically) cheap gas, and the primary ingredients for our current traffic woes were set in place. Since the 1950s, U.S. infrastructure has been primarily developed for the personal vehicle rather than any other mode of transportation. Relatively recently, we’ve seen some additions and changes to transportation options, including mass transit development, ride-sharing, micro-mobility, and transit-oriented development. Despite growth in these areas, traffic continues to worsen. So what’s the solution?
Major infrastructure and mindset changes are needed for the United States to take the next leap forward, away from the rampant reliance on—and near addiction to—the personal vehicle. Thankfully, there is an unexpected ally in the fight to reshape U.S. infrastructure and mindsets, one who may have a profound impact during the 2020s and beyond: the retiring Baby Boomer.
More than 70 million Baby Boomers are retired or approaching retirement. As they retire and finalize residential plans, development of seniors housing has correspondingly increased. However, not all seniors housing is created equally. Some developments have high vacancy rates because a substantial portion of seniors are staying put longer than developers had expected (sometimes because their children or grandchildren are living with them). As noted in a recent Wall Street Journal article, amenity-rich city developments near transit attract the wealthy seniors escaping the suburbs for the city, and these developments have also attracted investors.
One reason seniors developments in cities have been faring better than the suburbs—both occupancy- and investment-wise—is seniors’ attitudes (and abilities) toward driving are changing. Thousands of seniors give up driving every year, whether by choice or because their licenses have been revoked. For example, in California, drivers over the age of 70 must renew their licenses in person and perform an eye exam and written test every five years. Without a driver’s license or car, the ability of these people to stay mobile relies on alternatives such as public transit, ride-sharing, and micro-mobility.
That said, Boomers’ desire to use public transit more often and move to transit-oriented development (“TODs”) will not by itself stem the overall trend of declining transit numbers. As noted previously, TODs are expensive and can have a counterintuitive impact on transit ridership numbers (at least in Los Angeles) because they are typically unaffordable for the primary transit user; they also increase rents in areas adjacent to such developments. Putting the cost of TODs aside, retiring Boomers will never use transit as often as, say, daily commuters getting to and from their jobs.
There’s some irony wrapped into Boomers wanting to exit the suburbs, given that suburban development exploded in their formative years and continued to surge as they raised their own children. Perhaps the lack of “amenities” in the suburbs will make Boomers use their powerful voting block to help rework infrastructure and land use policy. With California’s Senate Bill 50 almost guaranteed to become a voting battleground, maybe it’s the Baby Boomers whom the political ads should target. Perhaps their possibly growing disdain for suburban life and reliance on cars could be the turning point the United States needs to shift more infrastructure development away from the personal vehicle.
