Bahrain has announced without warning that it is blocking all incoming flights from Dubai International Airport for 48 hours, in a sign of the dramatic measures being taken by Gulf governments to try and halt the spread of Covid-19, the coronavirus which originated in China last year.
In Kuwait, the government has also abruptly cancelled all festivities to mark the country’s National Day, due to be marked on February 25, and banned all sports fixtures for two weeks, as governments look for ways to deal with the threat.
The Bahrain flight ban, reported by the official Bahrain News Agency in the early hours of February 25 local time, took effect immediately. It also covers flights arriving from another UAE airport, Sharjah International.
There are at least 15 flights a day to Bahrain from Dubai International, one of the world’s busiest airports and the most important aviation hub in the Middle East. Those flights are operated by Bahrain’s national carrier Gulf Air as well as the UAE’s Fly Dubai and Emirates Airline. Air Arabia operates three flights a day from Sharjah to Bahrain.
Gulf Air aircraft at Bahrain International Airport on November 5, 2019. (Photo: KARIM SAHIB/AFP via … [+]
The first confirmed cases of coronavirus in the Gulf region were in the UAE, announced on January 28. Since then others have been reported in most nearby countries, including Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and Oman.
The first case in Bahrain was announced on February 24, with a Bahraini citizen arriving from Iran reported to be infected; a second case was announced later the same day, this time of a Bahraini woman who had travelled from Iran via Dubai.
Iran is by far the worst affected country in the region so far, with many hundreds of cases being reported, although there have also been allegations of an official cover-up of the true extent of the situation. The first deaths in the region from the virus were also in Iran.
At first, Gulf countries reacted to the health crisis by discouraging travel to China, but as the disease has spread, so have their restrictions, encompassing more countries and stricter measures. On February 20, Iraq suspended all flights to Iran until further notice, with Kuwait and Saudi Arabia taking similar steps the next day. On February 24, Kuwait also suspended all flights and ships going to and from Iraq. Oman suspended all flights to Iran on the same day. Iranian media outlets have reported that Afghanistan, Armenia, Iraq, Pakistan and Turkey have all closed their borders with Iran.
Economic costs
It is too early to know what the economic impact of all these restrictions might be, but it could be substantial. Travel bans and flight suspensions will have a direct impact on the tourism and logistics markets, but almost all sectors of the local economies could be affected to some extent.
In a research note issued on February 17, Oxford Economics noted that “the coronavirus epidemic now clouds the outlook for global travel and tourism, which contributes over 10% to the UAE’s GDP.” It noted that arrivals from China and North East Asia account for just under 8% of total arrivals to the UAE, and 5% in Qatar. “Concerns over the coronavirus impact may take a toll on sentiment and threaten the recovery in GCC non-oil activity,” the report said.
Credit ratings agency Standard & Poor’s has pointed out that China buys between 4% and 45% of GCC countries’ goods exports, with Oman being the most exposed, while Dubai received almost 1 million visitors from China last year.
“If the virus continues to spread, there is a risk that the economic impact could increase unpredictably,” S&P said in a research note issued on February 16. “For the GCC, this could result in a drop in oil prices, economic growth, and real estate prices.”
Speaking in the Saudi capital Riyadh on February 22, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said her organisation’s baseline scenario sees China’s economy returning to normal in the second quarter of the year and the impact on global growth would be just 0.1%. “But we are also looking at more dire scenarios where the spread of the virus continues for longer and more globally, and the growth consequences are more protracted,” she added.
