Auction houses expect this month's New York sales to bring in as much as $1.6bn

New York auction houses anticipate bringing in between $1.2bn and $1.6bn during the marquee autumn sales next week, falling short of the estimates for the November sales last year as the art market remains soft. But specialists say “one-in-a-lifetime” works by artists who are household names will be milestones even in a challenging market.

At both Christie’s and Sotheby’s, the leading sales are single-owner collections, which have served as anchors for big-ticket evening sales for years. While neither landed a blowout collection like that of Emily Fisher Landau (which fetched $406.4m with fees last year) or Paul Allen (a record $1.5bn in one night in 2022), the single-owner collections are dependable for auction houses.

A guaranteed Magritte record-breaker

*L’empire des lumières* (1954) by René Magritte Courtesy Christie’s

Christie’s secured the estate of late New York interior designer Mica Ertegun, whose collection of art, design and jewellery is expected to sell for between $140m and $166m. An evening sale of 19 blue-chip lots from Ertegun’s collection will take place on Tuesday (19 November), led by René Magritte’s L’empire des lumières (1954). Estimated to sell for more than $95m, it is the most valuable lot announced by any of the New York auction houses this month. The lot is guaranteed and will break the artist’s record at auction.

The last of Ed Ruscha’s large-scale canvases from the 1960s still in private hands is also being offered by Christie’s during its 20th Century evening sale on Tuesday (19 November). Standard Station, Ten-Cent Western Being Torn in Half (1964) was a highlight from Ruscha’s travelling retrospective, which made stops at the Museum of Modern Art in New York and the Los Angeles County Museum of Art in 2023-24. The gas station painting is reportedly being consigned by Texas oil billionaire Sid Bass. Christie’s estimates it will sell for around $50m, which would break Ruscha’s auction record of $46m, which the auction house set in 2019.

*Standard Station, Ten-Cent Western Being Torn in Half* (1964) by Ed Ruscha Courtesy Christie’s

Another possible record-breaker at Christie’s is an untitled sketch by Jean-Michel Basquiat, part of the 21st century evening sale on Thursday (21 November). Executed in 1982—considered by most to be the artist’s peak year in terms of artistic output—the drawing has been given an estimate of $20m to $30m. Selling within that range would far exceed Basquiat’s previous record for a work on paper at auction of $15m, set in 2020. (The drawing up for sale at Christie’s this month is about 63 in by 44 in, more than four times the size of the current record sketch, specialists noted.)

Will rare lots trump market jitters?

Christie’s eight sales are cumulatively expected to bring in between $582.7m and $796m. In the buyer’s market of the past two years or so, auction houses say clients are being more discerning. But the nature of auction bidding creates a sense of urgency that can supersede some of that fencesitting, specialists say.

“It’s hard not to buy something that’s a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity,” says Imogen Kerr, a Christie’s vice president, senior specialist and co-head of the 20th century evening sale. “If we’re presenting works that are of the highest quality and the greatest historical importance, then you either move it or you lose it.”

The season’s leading collection

Sotheby’s won the consignment of late Palm Beach cosmetics mogul Sydell Miller’s collection of art and design pieces. With four dedicated sales across November and December, Miller’s collection is estimated by Sotheby’s to bring in around $200m. The collection’s leading lot is a work from Claude Monet’s Nymphéas series (around 1914-17), with an estimate in the region of $60m. A portrait by Pablo Picasoo, La Statuaire (1925), is expected to fetch around $30m.

More modest in price, scale and materials, the most talked-about lot of the season is Maurizio Cattelan’s infamous duct-taped banana, which is making its auction debut at Sotheby’s during The Now and Contemporary auction on Wednesday (20 November). One of the three editions that set the art world into a fruity frenzy during Art Basel Miami Beach in 2019, Comedian (2019) is estimated to sell for between $1m and $1.5m. That includes directions on how to arrange the conceptual work, a certificate of authenticity, a single roll of duct tape and a banana, Sotheby’s says.

Sotheby’s will also sell one of Surrealist artist Leonora Carrington‘s most definitive sculptures, La Grande Dame (The Cat Woman) (1951), with an estimate between $5m and $7m. (The large wooden work, which dates back to early in Carrington’s career, is not one of her controversial late bronzes, which divide experts). Sotheby’s estimates its November sales will bring in between $478m and $659m in all, not including fees.

Leonora Carrington‘s *La Grande Dame (The Cat Woman)* (1951) Courtesy Sotheby’s

Last year, the auction house brought in $1.2bn with fees across eight New York sales in November. Across the board, sales this season are featuring fewer lots than a year ago. Market jitters can cause potential consignors to hold onto works they would otherwise be interested in selling, specialists say.

“Seemingly every headline I see is about the perceived volatility of the market,” says David Galperin, Sotheby’s head of Contemporary art for the Americans and co-head of marquee sales. “However, in terms of actual transactional activity and demand, I don’t think it necessarily lines up with the headlines in the news.”

A stable market

At Phillips’s Modern and Contemporary evening sale on Tuesday (19 November), the leading lot is one of Jackson Pollock’s untitled “drip” paintings from around 1948, on display publicly for the first time since it was included in the artist’s seminal 1998-99 retrospective at the Museum of Modern Art in New York, followed by a run at the Tate in London. It is expected to sell for more than $13m. Phillips expects to bring in between $86.2m and $126.8m across its evening and day sales.

Bonhams has secured an evocative flower painting by Georgia O’Keeffe to headline the auction house’s evening sale of 20th and 21st century art on Wednesday (20 November). O’Keeffe painted White Primrose (1947) the year after the death of her husband, the photographer Alfred Stieglitz. White primroses are known as symbols of sadness and mourning. It is Bonhams’s leading lot of the season, with an estimate between $4m and $6m. Altogether, the auction house expects to bring in just under $30m on the week.

*White Primrose* (1947) by Georgia O’Keeffe Courtesy Bonhams

“My strong belief is that those consignors who elected to ignore the noise and decided to auction this season will do very well, because there’s great demand and appetite in the marketplace,” Galperin says.

The November sales will also be the first major test of the US art market after a divisive presidential election in which former president Donald Trump won resoundingly. While most of the art world supported the Democratic candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris—at least publicly—specialists say they don’t anticipate the election results to affect November’s sales.

“Our market, if it’s proven anything over the past five years, has shown it’s incredibly resilient no matter what sort of significant event, whether it’s a pandemic or wars,” says Julian Dawes, Sotheby’s head of Impressionist and Modern Art and co-head of marquee auctions in the Americas. Judging by the way the stock market rallied the week after Trump was re-elected, Dawes adds, “people are in pretty good spirits, I think probably feeling as bullish as they ever would”.