Last season, the Oklahoma City Thunder climbed back into the playoffs after a five-year drought, claiming the Western Conference’s top seed.
Although the Thunder lost in the semifinals against the Dallas Mavericks, their season was successful. Now, with the offseason addition of defensive ace Alex Caruso and versatile center Isaiah Hartenstein, OKC has its sights set on a deeper playoff run in 2025.
But can the Thunder contend for a championship? Let’s break it down.
Passing
Oklahoma City didn’t rely on a true point guard last season. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander slotted in at the one, but he’s more of a shooting guard in the mold of Kobe Bryant. SGA dished out a respectable 6.2 assists per game last season, but it was one of the lowest marks for a lead playmaker on a playoff team.
During the regular season, the Thunder thrived on generating miscues (13.6 percent turnover rate), fueling a league-best 26.5 transition points per game. However, in the half court, the lack of a true floor general became apparent. OKC resorted to isolation plays (sixth most in the league), often relying on Gilgeous-Alexander’s brilliance to bail it out.
The offseason trade of Josh Giddey, the team’s second-best facilitator (career 5.7 APG), without acquiring a replacement point guard further complicates the issue. The Thunder will enter the 2024-2025 season with only one real passing threat, Gilgeous-Alexander.
Can the Thunder create enough scoring opportunities in the half court against playoff defenses designed to slow the game down?
Interior defense
OKC’s interior defense was a clear weakness last season, particularly against teams with imposing frontcourts. Enter Isaiah Hartenstein, a solid defender who started 49 games for the Knicks last season, helping them to a top-10 defensive rating.
Hartenstein played with his motor redlining every game, hustling for rebounds and stretching for closeouts, but he isn’t a dominant rim protector. He finished the season with 1.1 blocks per game and allowed opponents to shoot 60.7 percent from the restricted area, good for 45th in the league.
Even more concerning for OKC, Hartenstein struggled to contain elite Western Conference centers such as Anthony Davis of the Los Angeles Lakers, Victor Wembanyama of the San Antonio Spurs and Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets.
- Davis shot 50 percent against him in 95 possessions.
- Wembanyama shot 66.7 percent against him in 49 possessions.
- Jokic shot 70 percent against him in 36 possessions.
Will Hartenstein’s presence be enough to shore up the paint against the likes of the Lakers, Nuggets and Timberwolves in the playoffs?
No. 1 option
Unless you’re the Boston Celtics, who have five top-50 players in their starting lineup, having the best player on the court goes a long way toward winning a playoff series. SGA is undoubtedly a superstar with a lethal first step and a deadly mid-range game.
But in a Western Conference loaded with surefire Hall of Famers such as LeBron James, Jokic, Dallas’ Luka Doncic, Phoenix’s Kevin Durant and Golden State’s Stephen Curry, can Gilgeous-Alexander consistently be the best player on the court in a playoff series?
These players have led their teams deep into the playoffs, demonstrating the ability to elevate their game when the pressure mounts and defenses sink their teeth into them. Can Gilgeous-Alexander rise to that same level and carry the Thunder to a title?
How will the Thunder fare in next season’s playoffs?
With at least 12 teams vying for a playoff berth, the Western Conference is loaded. OKC should have no problem securing a top-four seed, but the playoffs may expose it. The lack of a true playmaker and questions about the interior defense could be too much to overcome.
