How COVID-19 Is Changing Mobility In A Way No Technology Ever Could

Mobility has been undergoing one of the most exciting transitions of recent memory. Technologies such as autonomous driving, digitalization and battery electric technologies are converging, not only with each other, but concurrently with societal trends like sharing and sustainability. Although most of those working in this industry did not have a 100% clear view on the timing, volume, and impact these technologies would have, COVID-19 has brought everyone ‘back to the table’ examining the one thing that is more important than any of the above – behavior!

The pandemic has fundamentally changed people’s mobility behavior. This is a big deal. In terms of mobility, most people are creatures of comfort with distinct patterns and these patterns are not typically easy to change. When it comes to why people travel as well as the top criteria for selecting the transportation mode of choice – both have been impacted by COVID-19, and not just for the short-term.

Primarily, humans travel for a number of regularly recurring reasons – including work, errands, visiting family and friends, and leisure. Looking at leisure, people mostly travel to relax and unwind or experience something new – immersing themselves in a different culture or going on a new adventure. Before COVID-19, visiting family and friends may have been in spot 2 or 3 on the list of priorities. However, due to the pandemic leisure travel has been met with challenges and uncertainty around cancellation and entry/re-entry policies. This, in combination with the fact that business travel is being greatly restricted and more people are working from home– and therefore not experiencing the same level of human interaction as they used to – has led to visiting family and friends developing into something of a ‘special’ priority.

Before the pandemic, planning trips often consisted of answering a number of standard questions. “Where shall we go” or – in the case of work – “where do I need to go”, was followed by questions of cost, convenience, and overall travel time. COVID-19 has forced travelers to rethink their priorities. Now, people look at convenience through the added lens of safety – favoring more private modes of transport. The collective definition of convenience has shifted from “what time does it leave” to “how can I minimize transfers, large groups, and public or shared spaces?”

Looked at individually, these changes in priorities may not seem like a big deal. However, together, their impact on the different sectors of mobility is significant.

The most obvious of these impacts has been a shift away from trains and planes, and a move towards private cars and hyperlocal mobility solutions. A recent global survey by McKinsey asked individuals how they believed their mobility behavior would change post-COVID-19: 40% replied that they would fly less, 32% would take the train less often, and 32% claimed they would choose to travel by private car more often. From a sustainability standpoint, a shift towards private cars would appear to be the opposite of a shift towards more sustainable solutions. However, it is important to look more closely at this trend as it applies to the transport sector as a whole. One positive effect can come from an acceleration in the uptake of electric vehicles.

Various studies predict a decrease in global vehicle sales for the entire 2020, e.g. McKinsey foresees a 20-25% decrease. Even electric vehicle sales have taken a hit globally – in Q1 2020 EV sales decreased by 7%. However, this decrease was not seen in Europe. In fact, in September this year, for the first time ever in Europe, registrations of electrified vehicles (including pure electric, plug-in hybrids, full hybrids and mild hybrids) overtook those of diesel cars. Keeping in mind that, 10 years ago, diesel cars accounted for 50% of the registrations while the EVs share was below 1%, that is a tide change. In general, the pandemic has not seemed to deter EV buyers from making their purchases, perhaps because these have been in consideration for a while. By 2022, it is projected that the EV market shares in China and Europe will be even higher than pre-COVID-19 projections.

Unfortunately, nobody has a crystal ball to truly understand how things will ‘bounce back’ after the pandemic. Although during the lock-down periods, ridership on public transport experienced a decrease of 70-90%, most indicators suggest that it will rebound – albeit with some additional measures to ensure more personal space.

One encouraging trend with respect to air travel is a movement towards zero-emission technologies and revised routing – flying smaller planes more frequently and on shorter routes (aimed at diverting traffic from the major hubs). One pioneer in this movement is Heart Aerospace, a Swedish start-up aiming to deliver the world’s first all-electric commercial airliner by 2026. The principle behind their zero-emission drivetrain (and lower fuel costs) results in reduced travel times – and thus more convenience with regards to the safety lens mentioned earlier. And there is an increasing number of young companies working on similar concepts. Take Munich-based Lilium, for example, that is aiming to launch its all-electric jet with VTOL (Vertical Take-Off and Landing) capabilities by 2025, covering distances of up to 300 kilometres. Ambitious newcomers such as this give investors in mobility start-ups in Europe and the USA reason to be optimistic for the future. New concepts, business models, and twists on what the industry was already excited about before COVID-19 will surely be given a new look coming out of the pandemic.

In my first article as a Forbes contributor, I talked about walking – walking so much in fact, that I burned a hole in the sole of my shoe. It may be time for people to once again look up the number of their local cobbler. It is now apparent that COVID-19 has resulted in an increase of mobility ‘near our home’. Hyperlocal mobility. This is partly due to the fact that many people are working from home as well as the fact that long-distance travel options have decreased. Regardless, many people are finding walking to be much more than just another mobility option (e.g. for commuting) – but an important part of managing the uncertainties of the pandemic and the additional stress that comes with it. And, when testing the waters for the behavioral changes expected to stick around, a number of valuable insights can be uncovered. According to the McKinsey survey cited before, 70% of respondents say they plan to walk or bike weekly,  an increase of 6% compared to pre-crisis levels. If you apply this to the global population of 18-64-year olds, that comes out to 4.9B people walking or biking weekly – not too bad.

Mobility patterns, preferences and ultimately behavior have changed due to COVID-19. But one thing that has not changed is the desire to move. So, as society prepares to ‘move on in’ to 2021, it will be interesting to see how behavior continues to shape the mobility transition and what parts, from a sustainability stand-point, can be amplified or accelerated.