A green future of transportation: how self-driving cars will be make or break

It’s the year 2030: you wave your hand and within 30 seconds a car pulls up, the door opens, and you step in. Your favorite music is on and the vehicle makes its way to your destination without you requesting either – it already knows from your digital profile. You relax, recline your seat as if in business class, and start to doze off while the chair softly massages you. The agony of commuting is the past: the autonomous future is here. Sounds ideal, doesn’t it? What if this wasn’t only better for you but also for the planet?

The default expectation is that it will be: AVs will bring on an idealistic future that is “greener, cleaner, safer, and {…} better” (McKinsey). Yet this is no foregone conclusion. Certainly, AVs may turn out to be cleaner than current vehicles. Yet, there’s also the risk that they may lead to huge increases in miles driven due to lower costs of personal transportation, thus offsetting any environmental gains at the micro level. Furthermore, a decarbonization of the transportation sector also requires a large-scale one in the electric system that powers it.

This won’t be easy. So how can we anticipate the potential impact and hopefully use this technological revolution to also drive an environmental one? The simplified model below breaks down which elements drive emissions and environmental impact.

A number of technological, economic, and behavioral trends will have an effect on these elements, ultimately impacting emissions. Some of the most commonly discussed trends in the AV space are the following:

Each of these trends can be directly mapped onto the model:

While we may not yet know the magnitude of the impact, this simplified framework highlights the positive and negative impacts they will have. This raises vital considerations and questions that lie ahead.

1) How affordable will AV transportation really be?

Elements affected: Trips/person, # of people taking trips, and distance / trip

Projections for cost / distance at this point are still a shot in the dark: estimates vary all the way from $1.58 – $6.01 per mile (Financial Times) to $0.55 – $0.70 per mile (BCG) – compared to $0.93 per mile for car ownership and $1.86 for ride hailing (AAA) . The technology isn’t yet broadly commercialized and thus the cost of AVs remains high. The industry will come down the experience curve and mass production of currently expensive components (LIDAR in particular) will bring down cost. Still, companies will want to recoup their enormous investment (Honda $2.8 billion in Cruise, Uber and Google spending more than $1 billion, and VW committing $50 billion among others) and make a profit. Seeing how challenging this has been for ride-hailing companies (without the AV R&D costs), the cost may stay higher than we expect for longer. Just how affordable AVs become will be a major factor in the frequency, quantity (long commutes vs. short trips) and type (solo vs. pooled) of use.

2) What type of vehicles and how carbon-intensive is the energy source?

Element affected: Emissions / unit of energy

Decarbonizing personal transportation (14% of global carbon emissions) has become a priority for both automakers and governments around the globe. They are placing their bets on electric vehicles (EV). These still make up a small fraction of current new vehicle sales (2.2% globally in 2018) and will need to grow in share to make a dent in emissions. This will require improvements in battery technology, charging infrastructure, and cost-competitiveness. However, EVs will have minimal/no impact on if the grid continues to rely on fossil fuels. Driving an EV in Norway isn’t equivalent to driving one in India. Improving emissions from EVs thus depends on reducing the share of coal and increasing that of renewables.

3) How safe and efficient will vehicles get?

Elements affected: Unit of energy / distance and Emissions / unit of energy

Much of the preference for bigger and heavier cars is due to their greater safety in potential collisions. Depending on how safe AVs get, there is the possibility for using lighter and more compact vehicles. Instead of having bulky gas-guzzling SUVs, people could get around in efficient vehicles carrying far less “dead weight”. Efficiency will also be important when it comes to sensors and the on-board processing power. These currently require considerable power – to the point that some EVs can’t even provide this level of performance. The efficiency of both the hardware stack and vehicle itself will have important consequences for future emissions.

How will stakeholders react to all of this?

As mentioned, human behavior will be a major factor but other stakeholders will be at least as influential. Government policy will affect decision making. Pricing mechanisms to encourage sharing and reduce ghost AVs would have a major impact. Disincentivizing usage may also be an area of focus with the possibility of a progressive tax on miles “consumed”, much like income is currently taxed. Of course, subsidies for R&D and infrastructure development will be important as will legislation. For automakers, focus on technology is key. Innovation in batteries, vehicle safety and durability, and energy efficient sensors and processing power will drive improved performance.

Where do we go from here?

The framework above enabled an overview of the potential environmental outcome. Of course, additional questions (a selection below) remain that require further exploration to fully quantify the impact:

• How will the introduction of AVs lead to substitution away from other modes of (public) transportation?
• How much environmental impact will the continuous testing and refinement of AV algorithms have?
• How different will the environmental impact of producing AVs be vs. current vehicles?

What is certain: a crossroads lies ahead. While the upcoming AV revolution stands to upend the status quo, the lasting impact could be environmentally positive or negative. We may not see the minutiae yet but we can anticipate the bigger picture. We know which trends will lead us down a road to greener pastures or exacerbate the polluted congestion of today. Let’s make sure we leave not only the agony of commuting but also its carbon footprint in the past.