Across the UK, city streets are quietly undergoing radical transformation. Temporary cycle lanes have popped up, footways widened to enable social distancing and, perhaps most drastically, residential roads are being blocked to through traffic. Since May, over 200 of these “low-traffic neighborhood” (“LTN”) trials have launched as more than 50 councils take advantage of the £250 million of emergency “active travel” funding from central government. The vast majority of these LTN schemes are in London. Full disclaimer: I live in one.
The idea is to free up the roads for those who are able to walk or cycle, especially at a time when public transport capacity is constrained due to Covid. Without investment in active travel, experts argue that it would be too tempting for everyone to jump in their cars, simply replacing one problem with another. Some boroughs would see a near doubling in the number of private transport journeys if all car-owning households switched their usual public transport journeys to car, according to Transport for London (TfL). A car-based recovery is simply not an option.
A section of the Mayor of London’s ‘Streetspace’ scheme, designed to expand capacity for pedestrians … [+]
A car-based recovery would also contradict the Mayor’s transport strategy which is for 80% of all trips in London to be made on foot, by cycle or using public transport by 2041. The pandemic is accelerating yet another trend – peak car.
The introduction of low-traffic neighborhoods, however, has been controversial. The schemes have, quite literally, divided communities. Implementation has been rushed. Traffic has temporarily been displaced to other residential roads. But give them time and, coupled with investment on main roads, they can work, according to Rachel Aldred, Professor of Transport at the University of Westminster.
A motorist turns round at the pedestrianised road junction at Carlton Avenue, Court Lane and Dulwich … [+]
“Our research shows that walking and cycling increased where new walking and cycling infrastructure (known as ‘mini-Holland schemes’) was built in Outer London,” Aldred said. “We have found larger increases in active travel, and reductions in car use and/or ownership, in LTN areas. While LTNs are only one tool to reduce car dependency and increase walking and cycling, they are potentially applicable to a wide range of streets and areas.”
No Return To The Status Quo
There will be no return to the old normal, and maybe that’s not such a bad thing. By 2050, two-thirds of the world population will live in urban areas. Cities around the globe are now rapidly reconfiguring for post-pandemic life. The 15-minute city concept, where most essentials are within close proximity to your home, is gaining momentum in Paris and across Europe. In Milan and Barcelona, street space is being reallocated to pedestrians and cyclists. This is a once-in-a-generation opportunity to redefine our urban landscape. As noted by architect Norman Foster, the last major pandemic of 1918-1920 paved the way for newly built gathering spaces: cinemas, department stores and stadiums. What might the post-Covid world bring us?
A sign reading “COVID-19 Temporary Restrictions” is pictured in the street as people drink at the … [+]
One thing is for sure: it won’t be centered around the motor vehicle. “We need to reduce the presence of cars on the streets,” said Carlos Moreno, “smart city” professor at the Sorbonne who developed the 15-minute city concept.
In the UK, the number of registered vehicles has nearly doubled over the past 30 years. Just look at London’s residential roads – traffic had remained stable since the early nineties but then surged by a whopping 72% between 2009-2019. Main roads, meanwhile, saw a decline in that period, demonstrating very clearly the unintended consequences that technology can bring – the ubiquity of sat nav apps has turned previously quiet residential roads into rat runs.
A Greener Final Mile?
It’s also no coincidence that e-commerce has surged over the past decade, leading to a rise in delivery vans scrambling for the quickest, most efficient route.
Even the king of e-commerce knows this is unsustainable: Amazon has committed to being carbon neutral by 2040. Electric cargo bikes, self-driving delivery robots and possibly even drones will help Amazon move towards a greener last mile and, by the end of the year, there will be 500 electric delivery vans operating in the UK.
Earlier this week, DHL launched London’s first parcel delivery riverboat service, aimed at easing congestion and transporting deliveries in a more sustainable way.
Still, more needs to be done to raise awareness and change consumer behavior. Earlier this year, the government was said to be considering a levy on e-commerce deliveries. A report prepared for the Department for Transport suggested that fast, free delivery was causing “unnecessary over-ordering” and that a mandatory charge, similar that introduced for plastic bags, would “encourage more sustainable behavior”.
Retailers need to get ahead of this and start rethinking loyalty – not every online order is time-sensitive so why don’t we reward shoppers for choosing slow delivery? For consolidating orders? For walking to the shop to collect an item? We need to go full circle.
Hyper-Local Retail Is Here to Stay
A pandemic, recession and the most profound structural changes the sector has seen in decades – it’s no wonder retailers may be resistant to yet more change. Pedestrianization, however, makes economic sense. Firstly, retailers tend to significantly overestimate the number of customers that arrive by car – by a factor of 100% according to Sustrans. People who walk to a high street spend up to 40% more than those who drive, according to TfL. And they visit more frequently: on average those who walk to their local high street visit 16 times per month, double that of those who arrive by car.
Cyclists enjoying the new Railton Road low-traffic neighborhood (LTN) in south-east London. The area … [+]
In my south-east London neighborhood, there are 20,000 people living within a 15-minute walk to our local shops. In the absence of a commute, many are skipping their morning coffee and regular trip to the dry cleaners, but new shopping occasions have emerged – the lunchtime meet, al fresco drinks, co-working space outside the local café. What is more, shoppers are keen to support the local businesses who were there for them during lockdown. There is a renewed sense of community and camaraderie.
It’s taken a pandemic, but local shops have been forced to evolve. Digital transformation is no longer optional. Click & collect, for example, has been the savior for many retailers helping them to remain relevant in turbulent times. Hyper-local is here to stay, but so is e-commerce. In the future, we can expect to see more online collection and returns points in our local shops, and more digitally enabled high streets. The lines between warehouse and store will also continue to blur, as retailers look to micro-fulfilment to cater to growing demand for same-day delivery.
But in the short-term, change is hard. Not all shops will see immediate benefits of the reallocation of road space. It takes time for new behaviors to bed in, but retailers must think of the bigger picture. Our high streets will die without radical change. Social distancing will be with us for at least another year which means shops and restaurants will continue to run at a reduced capacity with little change to their cost structure. Pedestrianization can alleviate this and, crucially, creates an environment where people want to spend time and money on a more regular basis.
Looking at the (even) bigger picture, we are facing a climate emergency. Covid will usher in the post-car era and retailers must embrace change or risk being left behind.
