Positives Among Dreadful April Auto Sales

None of the few automakers still releasing monthly U.S. sales numbers had much positive to report about their April results. Don’t let that fool you. A closer look reveals last month represented a gradual, but important reversal of the precipitous slide in vehicle sales caused by job losses and dealership closings triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic. 

One bit of evidence came from Hyundai Motor America which said its U.S. sales dropped 39% in April compared with April, 2019, but were actually up 6% from this past March. 

 “Sales varied significantly across regions. We focused on supporting sales in areas that transitioned from showroom retail to digital and contactless retail sales and service,” said Randy Parker, National Sales, Hyundai Motor America, in a statement.

A highlight for Hyundai was its compact SUV Tucson, which saw its sales increase 7% last month over April a year ago and reached one million in sales since its introduction in 2004.

Not every automaker could boast that sort of month-to-month upward trajectory. Mazda North America said its April sales were off 44.5% year-over-year and about 4,700 units lower than in March. 

Subaru of America said its April sales were down 47% from April, 2019.

But earlier this week Tyson Jominy, Vice President, Data and Analytics at J.D. Power said an analysis revealed that things are indeed on an upswing after hitting rock bottom in March.

“Industry sales fell pretty sharply over the month of March over the three weekends from the 8th through the 29th,” said Jominy during a webinar on Wednesday. “We saw sales fall at a rate of about 20 percentage points per week down to a low of 59%. Since then we have now experienced four consecutive weeks in a row of growth from that trough averaging about five percentage points per week so that now we are 20% above the trough over four weeks.” 

Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough agrees the numbers are starting to look better, explaining in a report posted this week, “Recent sales data suggests demand is starting to recover modestly after the initial shock in March and early April. Year-over-year daily declines, while still high, are consistently showing improvement over recent weeks. Some people want to buy a vehicle or need to buy a vehicle, even in a pandemic.”

Those people who do need, or want, to buy a vehicle during this pandemic are getting the chance now that many states have allowed dealerships to resume operations. That’s one reason for the gradual rise in sales. As stay-at-home restrictions are eased in some states, more people are returning to work and earning paychecks. 

Automakers are also offering generous incentives including 84 month financing with no interest and plenty of cash on the hoods. J.D. Power says incentives were at near record levels the week ending April 26 at $4,800 per vehicle.

An analysis by ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar, which tracks vehicle residual values, and other industry trends, shows German automaker BMW spending $6,488 per vehicle up 16.5% year-over-year and up 6.3% from March. 

Hyundai showed the biggest increase in incentive spending from March to April with an 11.4% boost in April to $2,455 per vehicle up from $2,204 in March. 

“Despite our expectation that retail sales volume will be cut in half in April due to the impact from COVID-19, average transaction prices continued their upward trajectory, hitting record highs this month,” said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst for ALG, in a release. “This is primarily due to the enticing zero percent interest rates being offered by automakers offsetting any model or trim concessions car buyers would be forced to make otherwise.”

The result is average transaction prices continuing to rise, reaching $38,060, according to Kelley Blue Book, and not all from sales of big pickup trucks and SUVs or luxury vehicles.

“Car segments that were flat earlier this year showed increases across the board in April,” said Tim Fleming, an analyst at Kelley Blue Book, in a statement. “At the same time, luxury segments took a dive, down nearly $1,500 from this time last year, as buyers shied away from these fast-depreciating models.”

With many automakers now only reporting sales quarterly, the best guesses as to where the industry actually stands come from various analyses of data. J.D. Power projected industry sales in the U.S. would come in around 616,000 retail units, while Cox Automotive weighed in at 620,000. Both of those numbers are more than 50% lower than sales last April, during “normal” times. 

Indeed, the annual selling rate is far behind 2019’s 17 million, with Cox Automotive predicting April’s selling pace near 7.5 million units.  

Still, optimism abounds, with Cox’s Charlie Chesbrough projecting, “It’s fully expected that April will be a terrible sales month, possibly a record, but a strong finish to the month is a good sign for May.”

Indeed, given the slowly reopening economy Tyson Jominy at J.D. Power confidently pronounced, “All signs point to we are in the midst of the recovery.”