As we head into a new year, contenders in each NBA conference are clear. Here’s an assessment of the top-tier Eastern Conference teams and the big question facing each in 2020:
Milwaukee Bucks (29-5)
BIG QUESTION: Can the Bucks manage the game when Giannis Antetokounmpo is not on the floor?
Milwaukee has the league’s best record, best defense and second-best offense. Its scoring differential of +13.0 is nearly double that of the next-best team (Dallas at +7.9). The Bucks could become one of the most dominant NBA regular-season teams in recent history.
It’s important to remember, however, that championships are won and lost by the finest of margins. Antetokounmpo has been sensational, averaging 30.9 points, 12.9 boards and 5.7 assists in a shade over 31 minutes a game. (He averaged 34.3 minutes last season.) But NBA games are 48 minutes, so there’s decent chunk of time when league’s potential MVP sits.
For the Bucks, the next rungs down the shot creation ladder lead you to Eric Bledsoe (15 ppg.) and Khris Middleton (18.7 ppg.). When the former plays with Antetokounmpo, he shoots more 50 percent from the floor, and his stout defense helps the Bucks hold opponents to a paltry 94.5 points per 100 possessions. But when Bledsoe plays without Giannis, things get dicier. The team’s offensive rating drops from 115.3 points per 100 to just 106.4; opponents outscore Bledsoe-led lineups by 3.3 points per 48 minutes.
Minus Giannis, Milwaukee’s offense hardly misses a beat when Middleton is the focal point, dropping from a 113 points per 100 to just 112.8 — a mark that jibes with the team’s Middleton-centric performance from last season as well. Except this season, the Bucks’ defense takes a massive hit without their versatile Greek defender. In those Middleton-only minutes, Milwaukee gives up over seven points per 100 possessions more.
It’s not surprising to see a team’s performance dip when an all-world player such as Giannis sits. But given the Bucks’ aim is to win the NBA title, managing those short stretches in the regular season and playoffs can have massive implications.
