By Danny Stusser
Dr. Bill Conerly will present economic trends at this year’s Regional Economic Forecast and Innovation Expo on Thursday, December 5. He told The JOLT he’ll offer insights into the national economic landscape and its potential impact on Washington businesses.
Attendees of the Regional Economic Forecast and Innovation Expo, an all-day event to be held at Great Wolf Lodge Water Park in Grand Mound, can expect to gain insight into the status of the region’s economy, and how to develop and create individual strategies for their own business and community. The Thurston Economic Development Council organizes the annual event.
Conerly, known for his Businomics Newsletter, said he plans to talk about national trends, including the risk of recession, inflation, and interest rates. The economist plans to examine the five counties in the area – Thurston, Grays Harbor, Mason, Lewis and Pacific – offering an outsider’s perspective on local economic conditions. He plans to look at key indicators such as employment growth and population changes and compare these local trends with national patterns for urban and rural areas.
The JOLT spoke with Dr. Conerly for a preview of his insights on several key issues facing Washington state, including labor market, tariff issues, and how artificial intelligence and other technologies may reshape the economic landscape.
The JOLT: What do you expect to talk about and tell me about “Businomics”?
Dr. Conerly: When I was a young guy, I wanted to be the go-to economist. The guy whose forecast was always right. But that bus left without me. There weren’t many people in the economics profession who were right year after year. I realized that I could add value by helping business leaders deal with the uncertainty of the economy. The most important thing I do is help people figure out what should be on their radar screens and what should be on their to-do lists.
In my presentation, I will focus on the decisions that business people will be making, but there will also be people from nonprofits and state and local governments, and they’re all sensitive to the economy. I’ll be thinking about the decisions they have to make in the coming year.
The JOLT: What should local business leaders be focusing on?
Dr. Conerly: I think a topic many business leaders are not giving enough attention to is the availability of workers. From 2020 to 2030, we will see the lowest growth of the working-age population since the Civil War. Job applicants were abundant from 1970 to 2010. In that era, a manager did not care much about employees’ schedules, whether it was convenient for the employees. If the employee did not like it, there was a line of candidates out the door.
That has changed. Today, there is not a line of applicants. If the boss is ragging on somebody, that employee has probably driven past half a dozen “Help Wanted” signs on the way to work.
Business leaders need to think about coaching people to be more productive, not whipping them harder. Give them better tools, better training, and better management to be more productive, improve employee retention, and get better at recruiting people who will last a long time.
Considering the shrinking number of workers, the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) in businesses, might help ease workforce challenges. If AI had come in the 1980s or 1990s, it could have been disastrous for employment. But right now, it is coming at a time when we need it.
The JOLT: How would the proposed tariffs affect the Washington state economy?
Dr. Conerly: Washington is a very large exporter relative to the size of its economy. I would expect retaliation from foreign countries if we raise tariffs, which happened in the first Trump administration. So we’ll raise tariffs on some other products, and other countries will say, ‘Well, we’re going to slap you in the face by raising tariffs on your products.’
Business people should be thinking in both directions. Those businesses that rely on imported products, or those buying and using foreign products, should be ready for that. Tariffs on imported products could affect a lot of economic activity.
The JOLT: Do you think there is anything that the new governor can do to overcome federal tariffs? Is Washington importing as much as it exports?
Dr. Conerly: There might be a couple of trivial things around the edges that could mitigate some of the effects, but nothing substantial.
The US, as a whole, imports more than we export. I am not sure about individual states.
Dr. Conerly has a PH.D. in economics from Duke University. He has over 30 years of experience helping companies adapt to changing economic conditions. He is the principal of Conerly Consulting LLC and the chairman of the board of the Cascade Policy Institute in Oregon.
About the event
The Regional Economic Forecast and Innovation Expo is a networking event that draws more than 350 participants, including decision/policymakers, community leaders, and innovators from various business and industry sectors in Thurston, Mason, Grays Harbor, Lewis, and Pacific Counties.
For more information about the event, click here, or contact Holly House at 360-754-6040 or hhouse@thurstonedc.com.
