We are around the midway point of the NFL regular season, and with playoff races taking shape, we have to remember that not all remaining schedules are created equal.
Strength of schedule is always a major factor in the competitive balance of the league, but we can sometimes forget that certain schedules can get significantly tougher or easier as the weeks progress. And that has a major impact on how playoff races shake out. Take a team like the Pittsburgh Steelers. They’re off to a fabulous start at 6-2, but they’re about to face an incredibly tough back stretch to their season.
According to my NFL Projection Model, the Steelers actually have the toughest remaining strength of schedule. To determine that, the model takes into account the teams remaining on the schedule, adjusts for whether that game is played at home or on the road, as well as adjusts for rest and/or travel implications.
GO DEEPER
NFL playoff projections 2024: Do the Bears still have legitimate playoff hopes?
So, while the Steelers are sitting pretty, winning games will not be easy for the rest of the season. The same can be said for a few other teams ranked at the top of this table, which is sorted from toughest remaining strength of schedule to the easiest.
|
Rank
|
Team
|
SOS
|
|---|---|---|
|
1 |
55.0% |
|
|
2 |
54.0% |
|
|
3 |
53.3% |
|
|
4 |
52.4% |
|
|
5 |
52.1% |
|
|
6 |
52.1% |
|
|
7 |
51.8% |
|
|
8 |
51.8% |
|
|
9 |
51.5% |
|
|
10 |
51.4% |
|
|
11 |
51.4% |
|
|
12 |
51.1% |
|
|
13 |
50.8% |
|
|
14 |
50.6% |
|
|
15 |
50.6% |
|
|
16 |
50.2% |
|
|
17 |
49.5% |
|
|
18 |
49.5% |
|
|
19 |
49.5% |
|
|
20 |
49.4% |
|
|
21 |
49.4% |
|
|
22 |
49.1% |
|
|
23 |
48.9% |
|
|
24 |
48.8% |
|
|
25 |
48.8% |
|
|
26 |
48.6% |
|
|
27 |
48.2% |
|
|
28 |
47.6% |
|
|
29 |
46.9% |
|
|
30 |
46.7% |
|
|
31 |
45.7% |
|
|
32 |
35.6% |
Top takeaways
• The Steelers still have to face four teams with six or more wins, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers won’t face any the rest of the way. Interestingly, the model expects both teams to go 4-5 down the stretch despite the Steelers’ projection as the better team.
• The Kansas City Chiefs are 8-0 and face just the fifth easiest remaining schedule. Outside of their game at Buffalo in Week 11, my model projects the Chiefs to have at least a 62% chance to win each of their remaining games. And with this remaining schedule, the Chiefs have a 3% chance of going undefeated.
• It’s going to be a sprint to the end in the NFC East, as the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders are both eyeing a division title and a guarantee of at least one home game in the playoffs. Luckily for both of them, they have schedules that rank among the easiest in the NFL. While the Eagles’ schedule is a bit easier, the road for both teams to comfortably make the playoffs is there.
GO DEEPER
NFL midseason predictions for every team: Kirk Cousins wins comeback award; NFC East champ is …?
• It will be an uphill battle for the San Francisco 49ers to make the playoffs as their record currently sits 4-4, and they face the fourth hardest remaining schedule. Six of their remaining nine games will come against teams that are .500 or better. Given all of the injuries the 49ers are still facing, it’s going to be tough for them to make the playoffs. My model currently gives them a 41% shot.
(Photo of Mike Tomlin: Joe Sargent / Getty Images)
