Hot takes from new NBA general managers survey. Plus, Happy Wembsday!

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I, Zach Harper, am abusing my powers as the writer of this newsletter to wish Bounce contributor, comedian, Blazers fan and author Ian Karmel the happiest 40th birthday possible. Everybody, go buy his book as a gift!

Survey Hot Takes

The biggest takeaways from GMs’ beliefs

I love this time of the year. The preseason is trickling in, we’ve sent a couple teams halfway around the world to market the league, and NBA.com has shared its annual general manager survey. The last part is tremendous content for us to discuss and bandy among friends and colleagues. How it works: John Schuhmann asks all 30 GMs 50 questions, ranging from season predictions to positional rankings to choosing the best option for taking the last shot in a game. It’s so much fun to know what execs think.

These were my favorite questions and biggest takeaways from this year’s survey (I have removed “also receiving votes” for these sections). Reminder: GMs aren’t allowed to vote for their own teams.

Which team will win the 2025 NBA Finals?

1. Boston Celtics – 83%
2. Oklahoma City Thunder – 13%
3. Dallas Mavericks – 3%

You know what’s incredible? A year ago, the Celtics and Nuggets were tied at 33 percent for this prediction, so Boston’s dominant title run pushing its mark to 83 percent impresses me. The Thunder and Mavericks also get some respect here.

Who will win the 2024-25 MVP?

1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City – 40%
2. Luka Dončić, Dallas – 30%
T-3. Joel Embiid, Philadelphia – 7%
T-3. Nikola Jokić, Denver – 7%

T-3. Jayson Tatum, Boston – 7%
» Last year: Nikola Jokić – 43%

This shows pretty high confidence in the 26-year-old SGA thriving within a very crowded field. And yet, execs did not pick him as the best point guard (second to Dončić) or best shooting guard (third to Edwards and Booker). It will be interesting how his case unfolds this season.

Who would you want taking a shot with the game on the line?

1. Stephen Curry, Golden State – 40%
2. Kevin Durant, Phoenix – 23%
3. Luka Dončić, Dallas – 10%
T-4. Nikola Jokić, Denver – 7%
T-4. Damian Lillard, Milwaukee – 7%
» Last year: Stephen Curry – 37%

I wonder if this would have been the result before Curry’s Olympic performance, namely when he torched Serbia and France. In either case, Curry usually battles it out with KD for this honor. Some other notes:

Big thanks to Schuhmann, NBA.com and the GMs for giving us so much to pore over.

Happy Wembsday!

Everyone is ready for Wemby’s dominance

Another part of that NBA.com GM survey discussed the inevitable takeover of Spurs superstar Victor Wembanyama. If you’ve been reading this newsletter for the last two years, you already know we’re all in on Wemby. We’ve dedicated every Wembsday to celebrating him and marveling at what he does. Our own Fred Katz wonders when to reasonably expect Wemby’s Spurs to reach to the playoffs as the team seeks to snap its longest postseason drought (five seasons).

NBA GMs are no different. At only 20 years old, Wemby already has them fawning all over his potential as a franchise centerpiece and defensive capabilities.

If you were starting a franchise today and could sign any player in the NBA, who would it be?

1. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio – 77%
T-2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City – 10%
T-2. Nikola Jokić, Denver – 10%
4. Luka Doncic, Dallas – 3%
» Last year: Nikola Jokić – 33%

Let’s be totally honest: sans the Spurs’ vote, Wemby should be unanimous here. No offense to SGA, Jokić or Dončić, but only one of those guys, at most, should have received a vote as Wemby received the rest. Why? Because GMs already believe the second-year big man is the best defender in the entire league!

Who is the best defensive player in the NBA?

1. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio – 40%
T-2. Bam Adebayo, Miami – 10%
T-2. Rudy Gobert, Minnesota – 10%
T-2. Jrue Holiday, Boston – 10%
T-5. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee – 7%
T-5. Anthony Davis, L.A. Lakers – 7%
T-5. Herb Jones, New Orleans – 7%
» Last year: Giannis Antetokounmpo – 40%

Wemby also won the vote (40 percent to 37 percent) over fellow Frenchman Rudy Gobert for best interior defender. He finished tied for second with OG Anunoby behind Giannis for most versatile defender and also tied with Tatum and Durant (10 percent) behind LeBron (20 percent) and Giannis (30 percent) for most versatile player, period.

Wembanyama tied for second with Ja Morant and Evan Mobley at 10 percent for best chances of having a breakout season. Jalen Williams (13 percent) won this. After what Wemby did a season ago, what does “breakout” even mean? Did I mention he received one vote apiece for best power forward, best center and best international player?

All of this is crazy praise for Wemby … and yet it’s not at the same time. The hyperbole can’t get too big. The predictions and assumptions can’t get too crazy. Wemby is the future of this NBA, so it’s not too long before he’s the undeniable present.

It’s the finals Countdown!

Lynx will face Liberty in WNBA Finals

You want to get the people going? You give them a do-or-die game to finish a playoff series and watch what unfolds. That’s exactly what happened with the Minnesota Lynx and their semifinals series against the Connecticut Sun. Both teams split the first four before Tuesday’s win-or-go-home Game 5. Unfortunately for the Sun (and anybody hoping to increase their blood pressure), this one was decided early after the first quarter ended with the Lynx holding a 13-point lead.

Minnesota weathered storms by the Sun in the remaining periods but cruised to its first WNBA Finals berth since 2017, when the Lynx won their fourth championship. Napheesa Collier led the way with a game-high 27 points, 11 rebounds, four assists and four blocks. She’s the first player in WNBA history to record three straight 25-point, 10-rebound games in the postseason.

The Lynx move on to face the New York Liberty in the finals as the latter seeks its first title. Game 1 is tomorrow night in Brooklyn at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN. We’ll have a series preview in tomorrow’s Bounce!

“When hard work pays off, it’s the best feeling in the world.” 💪

Napheesa Collier is locked in and already thinking about finishing the job in 3, not 5. #WNBAFinals presented by @YouTubeTV pic.twitter.com/qwnokjBgRR

— WNBA (@WNBA) October 9, 2024

DANCING OUR WAY TO THE FINALS. 💃 pic.twitter.com/EbmK3fwmA9

— Minnesota Lynx (@minnesotalynx) October 9, 2024

Phee is special 👑

Napheesa Collier becomes the first player in WNBA History to record 25+ PTS and 10+ REB in three straight playoff games!#WelcometotheW pic.twitter.com/9A9ZO3nCiA

— WNBA (@WNBA) October 9, 2024