3 Potential Storms – Which Early Hurricane Season System Will Impact The U.S.?

The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1st, and activity levels are already ramping up in what is projected by tropical weather experts to be another “above average” Atlantic hurricane season. I “spy with my little meteorological eye” three storms that have some potential for development in the coming days. Here is what you need to know about each of those storms.

The first storm has been designated by the National Hurricane Center as Tropical Depression Two (TD2). This system has become better organized off the coast of North Carolina. The depression could possibly tap into warm enough waters within a favorable wind shear environment for development. As a reminder, “favorable” means means low-to-moderate shear. As of Monday afternoon, the major weather models are buying into the storm intensifying to tropical storm strength within the next 0-24 hour time period before the storm drifts northeastward and dissipates near colder waters near Newfoundland. If it reaches tropical storm status (winds of at least 39 mph), it will be named Bill.

The second storm, Invest 92-L, that we are watching is the one most likely to impact the United States. The 2 pm (Monday) Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center noted that, “Showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of Campeche in association with a broad low pressure area….The system should begin to move northward by midweek, and a tropical depression is likely to form late in the week when the low moves across the central or northwestern Gulf of Mexico.”

It is not clear whether the storm will reach tropical storm status, but if it does, it would be called Claudette. Irrespective of name, the storm will produce heavy rainfall in Central American and Mexico with the potential for soaking rains in the northern Gulf Coast by the weekend. As of the time writing, the system had a 70% chance of development within the next 5 days so people in those areas should monitor it closely.

By the way, the second and third named storm of the Atlantic season typically forms on August 1st and August 13th, respectively. According to NOAA statistics (graphic below), the first hurricane of the season forms, on average, around August 10th, and the first “major” (Category 3 or higher) storm is near the peak of the season (September 3rd).

The final storm on my radar right now is a bit unusual for this time of year. The graphic above shows where most named storms form in mid-June. The prime spot is the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. However, a fairly significant easterly wave more reminiscent of later season Cape Verde storms is producing disorganized thunderstorm activity and has a 20% chance of formation within five days according to the National Hurricane Center. Easterly waves are wavelike disturbances in the easterly flow regime associated with low pressure. Later in the hurricane season, they are often seedlings for hurricanes. At least one major model tries to develop the storm, but it is likely to encounter strong upper level winds and dry air in the coming days. As it moves further north, it could also encounter an African Sahelian dust layer making its way across the Atlantic Ocean too.