This week’s Genesis Invitational at The Riviera Country Club in Pacific Palisades, California, brings out the first major-like field of 2021. We’re less than two months away from the 2021 Masters and the PGA Tour schedule really kicks into gear. Below, we’ll look for the best value bets in the 2021 Genesis Invitational odds, with tournament matchups, placings and other PGA Tour prop bet predictions.
Eight of the top-10 golfers in the Golfweek/Sagarin world rankings front this week’s 120-man field.
Odds provided by BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 9:26 p.m. ET.
Matchup bets
Bryson DeChambeau vs. Tony Finau (+105)
DeChambeau has been the talk of golf – and golf betting – since emerging from the 2020 hiatus with his brand-new look and increased power. Since that time, he has two victories and six other top-10 finishes with just two missed cuts in 15 international events.
In that same time, Finau has no victories but nine top-10s against two missed cuts in 20 events, including back-to-back co-runner-up results coming into this week. He’s also more experienced at Riviera than DeChambeau with 20 rounds played to 13. He’s the safer play at plus-money.
Justin Thomas vs. Rory McIlroy (-115)
Despite not winning on the PGA Tour or internationally since 2019, McIlroy still ranks ahead of Thomas in the Golfweek rankings. He’s also second in this field in strokes gained per round at Riviera at 2.26 to Thomas’ 1.39.
McIlroy tied for fifth last year while Thomas missed the cut for the first time in six appearances.
Placing bets
Top 5: Joaquin Niemann (+800)
Niemann finished second at both the Sentry Tournament of Champions and Sony Open in Hawaii.
He missed the cut in this event last year following a T-44 in his 2019 debut. His irons and approach game should be well-suited to this venue, and he’s tied for 11th on Tour in Bogey Avoidance this season.
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Top 10: Russell Henley (+600)
Henley has never finished higher than 17th in this event, but he is in top form early in the 2020-21 PGA Tour season. He leads the Tour in Bogey Avoidance, is tied for 16th in Proximity to the Hole and ranks seventh in Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500 Yards.
He’s up to 19th in the Golfweek rankings and had six top-10 finishes last year.
Top Canadian: Mackenzie Hughes (+275)
Though it’s without an elite option or tournament favorite, the pool of Canadians at the Genesis Invitational has four golfers priced between +175 and +350.
Hughes is third by the odds while playing here for just the third time with two previous missed cuts. His current game should play well, as he is averaging 0.32 Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green and 0.49 SG: Putting per round through 24 measured rounds on the new season.
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