After a two-week stint in Hawaii to open the 2021 calendar year, the PGA Tour is bound for PGA West in La Quinta, California, for The American Express, hosted by none other than Phil Mickelson.
This week’s event sees several big names return to play but runs opposite the European Tour’s Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which has drawn the majority of international stars like Justin Thomas, who has recently need in the news for the use of a homophobic slur.
Below, we look at the 2021 American Express betting odds, and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions to win. Odds provided by BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 12:40 p.m. ET.
Favorite
Abraham Ancer (+3300)
Ancer begins this week at No. 12 in the Golfweek/Sagarin world rankings, but he shares just the ninth-best odds to win The American Express. He missed the cut at last week’s Sony Open following a T-17 finish at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, also in Hawaii.
Ancer has averaged 0.73 strokes gained on the field over 11 career rounds on PGA West’s Stadium Course, according to Data Golf. He finished alone in second in this event last year while ranking second in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (3.32 per round) and SG: Putting (2.38 per round).
The 29-year-old has never won on the PGA Tour, but he has a notable win on the Australasia circuit from 2018. His excellent ball-striking and short game play well at this venue. His two days off in Hawaii will also play to his advantage with a large portion of this field making the long trip back to the mainland Sunday night or Monday morning.
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Contender
Adam Hadwin (+6600)
Hadwin is No. 1 in this field among those with four or more rounds played on the Stadium Course with 2.56 strokes gained on the field per round. The Canadian finished 2nd-T3-T2 in this event from 2017-19 but skipped last year’s tournament for the birth of his first child. In 2019, Hadwin was third among those who made the cut with 3.46 SG: Tee-to-Green and 2.95 SG: Approach per round.
He has slipped to No. 97 in the Golfweek rankings with his last win coming at the 2017 Valspar Championship, but he’s a clear fan of this venue and his betting odds don’t reflect his previous success.
Long shot
Will Gordon (+25000)
Gordon has never played this event and missed the cut in each of his last three tournaments, including last week at the Sony Open. He’s well worth a shot at these odds, as his distance off the tee will play well at the 7,113-yard, par-72 Stadium Course, and the 7,152-yard, par-72 Nicklaus Tournament Course.
He has a career-best T-3 finish against a stronger field at last year’s Travelers Championship. Many of the same names who’ve done well in that event have had success here, including Ancer and last week’s winner, Kevin Na.
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