When news broke about Andrew Luck’s NFL retirement, oblivious oddsmakers were tested like never before. In fact, there was a small window of time where veteran bettors with quick triggers could leverage Luck’s announcement and hammer favorable NFL futures odds. However, as Saturday night turned into early Sunday morning in the East, that window closed. The Indianapolis Colts watched their Super Bowl Odds plummet from 16-to-1 to 50-to-1 on the news Jacoby Brissett would be their new starting quarterback. Oh, and the AFC South’s futures shake-up did not end there.
(All futures odds via Betonline.ag)
AFC South odds:
Houston: +175 (was +285)
Jacksonville: +225 (was +400)
Tennessee: +300 (was +650)
Indianapolis: +450 (was -110)
Buried in the rubble of Luck’s retirement news were reports that Houston’s starting running back, Lamar Miller, tore his ACL in the Texans preseason game against the Cowboys Saturday night. Despite this and the fact Houston has one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, the Texans are now the favorite to win the AFC South. The Colts odds to win the AFC South dipped from -110 to +450.
The Jaguars and Titans both need their starting running backs, Leonard Fournette and Derrick Henry, respectively, to shoulder the load on offense. New Jacksonville starting quarterback Nick Foles will be running this offense for the first time, and Tennessee’s Marcus Mariota has failed to stay healthy for extended stretches throughout his career.
AFC East odds
New England: -500
NY Jets: +600
Buffalo: +1,200
Miami: +2,000
As expected, the Patriots remain heavy favorites to win the AFC East. A $500 bet would earn only a $100 return should New England capture the division crown again. Unlike previous seasons, this is not because the Patriots roster is so loaded that the other three rivals have no shot. Although New England has holes on both sides of the football, the Jets, Bills and Dolphins are still working to rebuild their respected franchises one draft and free agent signing period at a time.
New York may have won the Le’Veon Bell sweepstakes by signing the elite running back, but without him participating in preseason games, bettors are having a tough time gauging how much rust he needs to knock off before the start of the season. We’re also eager to learn how much quarterback Sam Darnold has improved between his rookie and sophomore NFL season. Those unknowns are part of the reason why the Jets possess 6-to-1 AFC East odds.
As for the Bills, their offense will struggle to average 14-plus points per game, and the Dolphins are the favorite to finish with the league’s worst record.
AFC North odds
Pittsburgh: +140
Cleveland: +165
Baltimore: +300
Cincinnati: +1,400
Whether the hyped-up, new-look Browns or tried-and-true Steelers boast the best AFC North odds depends on your preferred sportsbook. Still, many bettors truly believe Baker Mayfield is the chosen one and will lead Cleveland to its first division crown in 30 years. This investment ignores some offensive line concerns and the fact that the Browns ranked 30 th in total defense and allowed more than 24 points per game last season. It’s difficult to flip that script year-over-year.
Ben Roethlisberger may have lost his top running back and receiver, but don’t write Pittsburgh’s AFC North obituary just yet. JuJu Smith-Schuster is already one of the league’s top receivers, as he finished with more than 1,400 yards last season, and the two-headed monster of James Conner and Jaylen Samuels looks to build upon the team’s 16 rushing touchdowns.
Lamar Jackson must improve the Ravens passing game. Otherwise, defensive front sevens will spy Jackson and the Baltimore run game and dare Jackson to beat them via the pass. These weaknesses were exposed by the Chargers in the AFC playoffs last season.
AFC West odds
Kansas City: -150
L.A. Chargers: +165
Denver: +1,400
Oakland: +1,800
Reports out of Los Angeles last week were that Chargers running back Melvin Gordon’s holdout could last into the season — that is, unless, he’s now traded to Houston to replace Lamar Miller. On top of missing their starting running back, the snake-bitten Chargers also lost elite strong safety Derwin James for the better part of the season due to a fractured foot.
Aside from Kareem Hunt’s production of a season ago, Kansas City’s band is back together for another run toward not only an AFC West title, but also, more importantly, an AFC championship and trip to the Super Bowl. Much like Cleveland, the Chiefs must clean up their defensive breakdowns, as their unit ranked 31 st in yards allowed and 24th in points allowed last season.
The Broncos and Raiders fight for the worst AFC West odds depending on the sportsbook. In this case, the arrival of Joe Flacco hands Denver a slight edge on a Raiders franchise that’s reeling ahead of its move to Las Vegas. Although Oakland has offensive rookie of the year favorite Josh Jacobs in the backfield, Antonio Brown’s preseason helmet saga has caused unneeded distraction. Either way, without Brown or with Brown and the drama to follow, John Gruden should be in for another long season.
NFC East Odds
Philadelphia: -150
Dallas: +210
Washington: +800
NY Giants: +1,000
As Ezekiel Elliott’s contract holdout rolls on, there are reports that the Cowboys offered him a new deal that would make him the second-highest paid running back behind Todd Gurley. However, we’re less than two weeks away from the start of the regular season, and we have no idea what to expect out of Zeke when/if he returns to Dallas. Despite all the unknowns, the Cowboys are some good value at +210 if you don’t believe the Eagles hype.
The Eagles success may be as simple as whether Carson Wentz can stay healthy. The fourth-year quarterback has missed eight games over the past two years due to injury, but thanks to the Philly front office, now boasts his best supporting cast to date. The league’s seventh-ranked pass offense added veteran burner DeSean Jackson back into the fold to take some pressure off Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor. The Eagles’ 28 th -ranked running game received a boost when they acquired Jordan Howard from the Chicago Bears.
Washington’s quarterback situation is shaky as it leans on Case Keenum until rookie Dwayne Haskins is ready to take the reins, while Saquon Barkley appears to be the Giants’ lone bright spot until Daniel Jones relieves Eli Manning.
NFC North odds
Green Bay: +190
Minnesota: +190
Chicago: +200
Detroit: +1,000
One of these NFC North teams is not like the other. The Detroit Lions will have moved on from Matthew Stafford by the time they’re division favorites again.
It would have been nice to see Aaron Rodgers back on the field in the Packers’ third preseason game. However, terrible field conditions up in Winnipeg forced first-year head coach Matt LaFleur to protect his starters. So heading into the regular season, we’re not quite sure how healthy Rodgers is, but we do know he’s not 100 percent. He played through leg injuries and a concussion last season but didn’t miss a game. Though improved from 2017, the Packers allowed 25 points per game last season.
Kirk Cousins completed 70.1 percent of his passes, and Minnesota finished with the fourth-ranked defense last season but still ended with an 8-7-1 record. The Vikings will need some better luck and running back Dalvin Cook to clock in all 16 weeks. The third-year running back has missed 17 of 32 games through his first two seasons but looked explosive when healthy.
While questions remain offensively, there’s little doubt that the Bears possess one of the league’s elite defensive units. Chicago ranked first in rush and scoring defense and third overall last season. The pressure is now on Mitch Trubisky to lift the Bears inside the top 20 offenses this year.
NFC South odds
New Orleans: -160
Atlanta: +320
Carolina: +450
Tampa Bay: +1,200
If you felt a stiff breeze coming out of the East late last week, it was the Carolina fan base breathing a sigh of relief. It appears Panthers starting quarterback Cam Newton dodged severe injury when he sustained a mild foot sprain in the team’s third preseason game. He’s expected to be ready for Week 1’s matchup against the Rams.
It’s hard to imagine a well-oiled offensive machine like the New Orleans Saints slipping up, as Drew Brees nears the end of an illustrious career. So if the team does fall short of another NFC South crown, you’ll know who to blame: the defense. The team’s top-ranked rush defense of a season ago was a byproduct of its terrible pass defense that ranked among the league’s worst. New Orleans also allowed two more points per game year-over-year. At the very least, the Saints will need to maintain their 2018 defensive metrics to have another shot at the NFC title with the hopes the refs don’t crush their dreams again.
Matt Ryan gets Devonta Freeman back this year, which only boosts the offensive potential of one of the league’s most explosive units. Injuries on the defensive side of the ball derailed the Falcons’ 2018 campaign, but even at 100 percent the dirty birds have some work to do to close the gap on the rival Saints.
NFC West odds
L.A. Rams: -150
Seattle: +275
San Francisco: +400
Arizona: +2,500
Here are the million dollar NFC West questions that need answered:
Rams: How healthy is Todd Gurley? Will he be able to play 16-plus games this season?
Despite missing two games, Gurley still racked up 1,251 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns last season. He’s now averaged more than 300 touches per season through his first four. The high school, collegiate and now professional workload is starting to catch up with the Rams’ elite running back. While his bad knees are a cause for concern, oddsmakers tagging the Rams -180 to win the division indicate they expect Gurley to play most, if not all, of the 2019 regular season.
Seahawks: Aside from Tyler Lockett, who are Russell Wilson’s top targets? Will the offensive line protect its franchise quarterback?
Lockett accounted for 28 percent of the team’s receiving yards and 29 percent of the team’s receiving touchdowns last season. The team’s second-leading receiver, Doug Baldwin, was cut, and third-leading receiver David Moore is currently injured. So it appears the top-ranked running back corps of a season ago that averaged 33 carries and 160 rush yards per game will be busy again.
The offensive line allowed 51 sacks — eighth-most — last season. As a whole, with a concentration on false starts, Seattle’s offense was penalized 111 times for nearly 1,000 yards. This was down from 148 penalties for 1,342 two seasons ago.
49ers: How good is Jimmy Garoppolo?
He’s played in eight-and-a-half regular-season games the past two seasons. Until we better define his level of play, the 49ers are not a threat to win the NFC West nor a wise bet.
Cardinals: Who are the Cardinals going to select with the top pick in the 2020 NFL Draft?
Kyler Murray may be running for his life behind his offensive line. Arizona must address this next spring.
